The Long Page

Research, missions, movements, church growth, problems, transformation, futuristics, Matthew 24, 28. · Week of January 25, 2015 · Justin D. Long, ed. · Jump to: Events · Resources · Futuristics · Opinions | Blog

Events, Data, Analysis


UNWTO Tourism report for 2013 report. Tourism is 9% of GDP, 1 in 11 jobs, 1.8 billion international tourists by 2030.

Mapped: distribution of Arab dialects for North Africa, Middle East.

7 Stats to Know for Missions: brilliantly simple presentation that digs dip into important trends.

FiveThirtyEight on the perils of mapping city boundaries (and demographics within them).

Barna gives us 10 facts about America's churchless. A useful snapshot in time, but lacks historical context of ebbs and flows.

Lifeway's research tells us 60% of Millennials in America leave faith, but 60% return.

Divorce is down in America--but marriage is down too, and cohabitation is up.

East Asia's changing urban landscape: measuring a decade of spatial growth.

Cuba: Youth build secret computer network despite Wi-Fi ban.

Global Issues

Aging, death: cities are running out of room for graves. Solutions are driving businesses and changes in culture.

Agriculture: Most lucrative food crop in each USA state. Would be interesting if done for other places, too. Huffington Post.

Child Marriage. 42 million girls will marry before 18 this decade. 40% will be in India.

GDP per person at PPP, 2014, charted.

Unemployment: 212 mln, 2014. Country stats. Implications for BAM, recruitment, fundraising.

Migrants, returning radicalized: Deep analysis: Central Asians are traveling to Syria to fight for IS. Once there, they become radicalized and military-trained. When they return home, they present security risks.

Migrants, refugees: highest number by country of origin. Syria has replaced Afghanistan as the number one source. Economist.

Urbanization: in the future, the city (not the state) will decide stability and government. What role for the church? Foreign Affairs.

Water: by 2050, 50% more needed for food production; bodes ill for water-scarce.

2014 Global Slavery Index: 35.8 million in modern slavery, globally, in 167 countries. Worst: Mauritania, India. The Report.

Mobile technology innovation, mapped over time in an interesting chart.
Mobile generates $3.3 trillion of global revenue.

Mobile: Stats, and tips on taking advantage of mobile. Key tool in CPM, discipleship strategy.

Women are more responsible with money than men, studies show, and this Girl Effect Accelerator aims to help them.

North Africa

Egypt: Mubarak & sons cleared for release
Libya: chronology of violence since revolution

West Africa

Niger's anti-Hebdo riots Video: Guardian.
Nigeria, Killed by Boko Haram: 2014, 7700; 2015, 2000+

East Africa

Malawi: Floods displace 200,000, spreading

West Asia

Conflict mapped: what's under IS, others.

New Saudi King is, if anything, likely to be more strict on religious rules.

The dangers of Saudi succession, an analysis by the Atlantic.

Jordan: 1.3 million Syrians, Iraqis.

Requiem for Yemen's Revolution: why the government's resignation will have little impact on the lives of ordinary citizens.

President, cabinet quit.

Central Asia

Tajikistan: ISIS for jihad, foothold in Fergana.

South Asia

India, Islam: new census shows a 24% rise in the Muslim population ('01-'11), higher than national average of 18% AGR.

Iran: tightens grip on west Afghanistan.

South Asia, subAfrica 85% of maternal deaths.

Pakistan: 40% say some honor killings justified.

India: The polluted Ganges supports 400 mln.

Afghanistan: ISIS battles Taliban in Helmand.

East Asia


China's Great Firewall Upgrade now harder for VPNs to climb.

Religion among African immigrants in China.

Gender Imbalance "most serious in the world."

Christianity growing, encouraging crackdowns.

1-child restrictions eased, but few want 2nd.

Rudong, Jiangsu: previews China's aging crisis

Southeast Asia

North America


Resources, Tools

Rising Restrictions: a Pew Research report on government, social hostilities worldwide.

The Art of Evangelism by Guy Kawasaki of Apple Fame has a lot of lessons that can be applied to church growth.

Overseas workers: Many at home don't tap the value of their experience. Analysis, suggestions. Maybe we should help also help diaspora prepare for what to expect at home?

The key to leading a successful multinational team is communication, says Prof. Erin Meyer. She's written a book on it for businesses; may be useful to multinational agencies too?

Mission Calendar of Events Mission Catalyst has an exhaustive list.

Moving Overseas: 35 items we wish we had brought with us (from Expats helping Expats blog).

Religious Holidays as prayer guide to the nations: Calendar from Huffington Post. Christar has the great idea of using this as a prayer guide.

Shooting video: Tips on producing stable handheld video footage (for those mission videos).

Tentmakers/BAM: Sending Kingdom Professionals: a tool for churches' assessment process. Checklist evaluation tool, PDF via Catalyst Services.

Scripture and Language Statistics: a dynamic presentation. Key: 4,018 languages with no known Scripture. Wycliffe.

Crossing Cultures: How to interact and do business around the world: negotiation styles diagramed. Truth? Business Insider

Mapping: Cindy Brewer is is transforming map design with color pickers, font pickers, map assistants (Wired).

Scalable Startups: in the beginning, you have to do that don't scale (to figure out what will). buildblog.

College Students: How to choose what a first-year student should study. What about mission-interested students? Guardian.

Millennial Development Goal (MDG) Data Dashboards. Compare indicators, draft charts, explore data.

Ransoms, four myths: If your mission works in restricted areas, do you have a policy? Foreign Affairs.

Encryption: Peerio, the free encryption app that wants to replace Gmail, Dropbox (but it's not a plugin) Wired.

China and VPNs: Internet users try to get around the Great Firewall. Far West China reviews top 5 Best VPNs. Link.

Slacktivism: Shane Bennett on what it is, and why it's an important tool. Mission Cataylst.

13 things mission minded people do differently: starting with "they want to meet non-Christians." IMB.

9 Rules for Email: from Google Exec Eric Schmidt, and his new book, "How Google works." Some great gems. Time.


Overload: Youtube staff too swamped to filter out terror-related content, 300 hours of material uploaded per minute.

Ray Kurzweil's predictions through 2045, and how Moore's Law powers them.

On the cultural divide between makers and nurturers, pervading tech culture and seeping into the world.

3D Printed Cars via LocalMotors. PSFK.

Printed Homes: A Chinese construction company is cranking out basic one-story homes, mansions and apartment blocks.

Robots: How we'll feel about robots taking our jobs. We like it when they do thinking jobs, but not feeling jobs.

Security: What's on the Web isn't true. Nor does it stay forever. The average web page stays 100 days. New Yorker.

Reports of Google Glass's death are greatly exaggerated: Glass as an MVP. David Levine.

Newly released Uber stats: larger than whole taxi market in some cities, expanding internationally. Business Insider.

Kevin Kelly: machines that think should be viewed as artificial aliens. Most important that they do what we can't. Edge.

Thinking about interplanetary Internet: how far away could it be? Read.

Google sees self-driving cars on the road by 2020: executives optimistic on hurdling regulatory challenges. WSJ.

Real time translation: it's coming, and soon. Watch Google Translate decipher foreign signs in real time. Link.

DARPA-funded research IDs sex traffickers with machine learning. More reasons to embrace artificial intelligence--cautiously. GigaOm.

Robot journalists are turning data into written text, drafting reports for financial giants and US intelligence.

Seven cities are starting to go "car-free": Madrid, Paris, Chengdu, Hamburg, Helsinki, Milan, Copenhagen. FastCo.

Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future (Ford). Implications for BAM, tentmaking, fundraising.


The power of research: to change the world, Bill & Melinda Gates say you have to study it first.

Oxfam created a stir with a stat, but the Economist says it's the wrong yardstick.

What Just Happened in Internet technologies from Fred Smith, a worthwhile read. Social media is mature, sharing becomes renting, and cybersecurity is big.

Your Digital Strategy: Shouldn't be about getting attention, but about serving. 4 mistakes not to make.

Goodhart's Law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." Source.

If you're not failing, you're not growing (but failure itself is not enough). The billionaire who invented Spanx, more. Book excerpt.

Some blistering lessons churchplanters can learn from the failure of Target in Canada. Must read from Sarah Bessey.

Senior Christian voices in Europe are in a bind on reactions to the Charlie Hebdo violence. Economist.

The power of negative churn to grow a movement: you lose some, but the remaining "grow their spend" (their profitability).

Those who can't, teach. "No one could teach Armstrong to walk on the moon." Brilliance via J. D. Payne.

Information overload, multitasking, scrambled brains, afternoon naps, and brain exteders: Organizing the Mind.

Inequality isn't inevitable, it's engineered, argues Suzanne Moore. What we should ask: What is the Kingdom answer to wealth and riches?

How to set & shape priorities when the groups that have the smallest impact get the most press: AIDS, TB, Malaria killed 3.6 million. Ebola, 8,000. (Parallels to unreached.) Guardian.

How one person stamped lying out of their life. Medium.

17 things that change forever when you live abroad. Mostly about you. Read.

A rationalist society worships at the altar of the algorithm, but the god is more Greek myth than real. Atlantic.

Mission force distribution: clumping at the crossroads. My analysis.

Scope vs intensity of persecution: understanding this important factor.

How to use Fermi Estimation to estimate early answers to important questions, to test potential methodologies. Jason Cohen.

Two key things to know about Islam: the different branches, and the influence of the hadiths. Andrew Jackson.

Lousy Leaders: unconfident, arrogant, disorganized, untrusted, over-promisers, unclear, blind, unaccountable. Hyatt.

T4T vs DBS: similarities and differences in DMM methodologies. Both are useful, and only God can start a movement. Mission Frontiers.

Thinking, fast and slow (Kahneman). Explores two systems for thinking (intuitive, and deep reasoning), and how biases creep in.


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Concepts, Defintions

Sustainable closure
Unreached, Unevangelized, Unengaged

Strategies, Tactics

Where to go: a simple strategy for minor peoples
Questions to ask about your area: tactics

Essays, Longreads

A kingdom view
To reach a hard people
20 Tech Tools I regularly use, 2015
On disengagement and the unengaged
Multiplication by personal decrease
Questions to ask about your area
For 100 people, the end is nigh
4 types of people critical to movements
1 first step to make a difference in the world
The hardest of the hard peoples
18 things that kill pioneer missions
8 startup myths
The math of movements needs oikoses
4 problems with "the Gospel as a right"


Status of Global Mission, 2015
Christianity in its Global Context, 1970-2020
Contagious Disciple Making (Watson, Watson)
Miraculous Movements (Trousdale)

Our Resources

Global District Survey. June 2014, $10.
List of Unreached Peoples Prayer Guides, PDF.

Global Diagrams
1. The impact of Christianity on corruption
2. The impact of obeying Christ on corruption
3. Growth, population & Christianity, 1910-2010
4. The Evangelicalization of the Church
5. How Christian is a country?
6. Persecution not strongly correlated to growth
7. Doubles required for evangelicals to saturate

Think Tanks
On Callings: Pete Errington
On Mobilization: Bryan Padgett
On CPM Coaching: Paul Watson
On Shoal Creek “proto-Movement”: Roy Moran
On member health: John Splinter
On prayer strategists: Liz Adleta.

Cluster Forecasts
Persians. Turks. Horn of Africa.


Africa Inland Mission
Assemblies of God DFM
Baptist Bible Fellowship
Baptist Mid-Mission
Christian Brethren
Cru (Campus Crusade)
Child Evangelism Fellowship
CLC International
Christian & Missionary Alliance
Ch of the Nazarene
Ev Mission Society of West Africa
Friends Missionary Prayer Band
Greater Europe Mission
India Evangelical Team
Intl Mission Board
Intl Teams
Lutheran Ch Missiouri Synod
Missionary Aviation Flshp
Presb Mission to the World Navigators
New Tribes Mission
OC International
Operation Mobilization
Overseas Missionary Fellowship
One Mission Society
Soc of Intl Missions
The Evangelical Alliance Mission
Trans World Radio
Unevangelized Fields Mission
Worldwide Evangelization Crusade
World Indigenous Ministries
WorldVenture (CBIntl)
Youth with a Mission

World Newswires

AP / Reuters


Chicago Tribune
Christian Science Monitor
Globe & Mail
Guardian & Observer
The Hindu
New York Times
Radio Free Europe
Wall Street Journal
Washington Post

Long-Form, Magazines

Archives. 2015: 01/18.