Strategic
Looking to 2050
January 27—
When the rate of church growth declines
Is there ever a time when a decline in church growth rates is acceptable? The answer is yes, and realizing this helps us to think through generational missionary strategy. First, remember the difference between growth and the rate of growth. By growth we mean the number of people added to the church (e.g. “3,000 were added that day”). This is a specific number. By rate of growth, on the other hand, we refer to the increase in size per unit over time. This is more a measure of the “speed” of growth. To use an analogy: let’s say you’re taking a [...]
When the rate of church growth declines
Is there ever a time when a decline in church growth rates is acceptable? The answer is yes, and realizing this helps us to think through generational missionary strategy. First, remember the difference between growth and the rate of growth. By growth we mean the number of people added to the church (e.g. “3,000 were added that day”). This is a specific number. By rate of growth, on the other hand, we refer to the increase in size per unit over time. This is more a measure of the “speed” of growth. To use an analogy: let’s say you’re taking a [...]
January 12—
Temperatures, poverty, opportunities, and discipleship: what they have in common
This morning my daughter Mallory and I were talking about rain and cold temperatures. She, like me, is quite the little weather bug, and she was noticing this morning that after rain projected for tomorrow, it was supposed to be cold all the week. We began talking a bit about probabilities and phase transitions between the state of hot and cold. Later, the parallel between this and the phase transition between "reached" and "unreached" struck me. It's difficult to tell precisely when weather moves from "cold" to "cool" to "warm" to "hot." Likewise, it's difficult to see the phase transition from "no access" to "some access" to "church planting" to "church planting movement." We need nevertheless to aim for the phase transition rather than on/off situations like "engaged" or "reached."
Temperatures, poverty, opportunities, and discipleship: what they have in common
This morning my daughter Mallory and I were talking about rain and cold temperatures. She, like me, is quite the little weather bug, and she was noticing this morning that after rain projected for tomorrow, it was supposed to be cold all the week. We began talking a bit about probabilities and phase transitions between the state of hot and cold. Later, the parallel between this and the phase transition between "reached" and "unreached" struck me. It's difficult to tell precisely when weather moves from "cold" to "cool" to "warm" to "hot." Likewise, it's difficult to see the phase transition from "no access" to "some access" to "church planting" to "church planting movement." We need nevertheless to aim for the phase transition rather than on/off situations like "engaged" or "reached."
January 11—
Multiply opportunities, not wealth, goods
"It is not money the Great Asymmetry accrues, nor energy, nor stuff," writes Kevin Kelly. "The origin of economic wealth begins in opportunities.” There are Gospel applications for this too. Over 1 billion people do not have the opportunity to hear the Gospel. Church planting movements arise when opportunities suddenly benefit from rapid multiplication.
Multiply opportunities, not wealth, goods
"It is not money the Great Asymmetry accrues, nor energy, nor stuff," writes Kevin Kelly. "The origin of economic wealth begins in opportunities.” There are Gospel applications for this too. Over 1 billion people do not have the opportunity to hear the Gospel. Church planting movements arise when opportunities suddenly benefit from rapid multiplication.
January 10—
Google Search Plus You, the echo chamber, and the invisibility of the unreached
Anything that makes it easier to find information related to what I, personally, am looking for--that is fine-tuned to me and my interests--has the potential of being a significant help. On the other hand, there is a significant potential negative. Search that is fine-tuned to you is based in large part upon your history--what you have done in the past. It doesn't know what new things you might be interested in the future. Worse, it can keep away from you information you don't like--even if that information might be helpful. You are left in an "echo chamber" that sounds an awful lot like what you presently think, amplified--with no challenge to change.
Google Search Plus You, the echo chamber, and the invisibility of the unreached
Anything that makes it easier to find information related to what I, personally, am looking for--that is fine-tuned to me and my interests--has the potential of being a significant help. On the other hand, there is a significant potential negative. Search that is fine-tuned to you is based in large part upon your history--what you have done in the past. It doesn't know what new things you might be interested in the future. Worse, it can keep away from you information you don't like--even if that information might be helpful. You are left in an "echo chamber" that sounds an awful lot like what you presently think, amplified--with no challenge to change.
January 01—
Twitter Updates for 2012-01-27
http://t.co/zgAn9d1Z Predictions for Google's 2012 # Stay safe tonight friends in Minnesota ! # Supposedly a high of about 70 here in tx. No winter for us! # What to do to start more mobilization efforts in new places this year? Thinking about small local round tables to discuss. Like to Join me? # http://t.co/BL1t8ZeR Somalia: ICRC sends urgently needed medical supplies to Middle Juba # http://t.co/HI791mue Record number of murders # http://t.co/lzlUStyG Review of Chrislam: How Missionaries are Promoting an Islamized Gospel # http://t.co/SnkYcaIg Recruiting programmers to your startup # Powered by Twitter Tools
Twitter Updates for 2012-01-27
http://t.co/zgAn9d1Z Predictions for Google's 2012 # Stay safe tonight friends in Minnesota ! # Supposedly a high of about 70 here in tx. No winter for us! # What to do to start more mobilization efforts in new places this year? Thinking about small local round tables to discuss. Like to Join me? # http://t.co/BL1t8ZeR Somalia: ICRC sends urgently needed medical supplies to Middle Juba # http://t.co/HI791mue Record number of murders # http://t.co/lzlUStyG Review of Chrislam: How Missionaries are Promoting an Islamized Gospel # http://t.co/SnkYcaIg Recruiting programmers to your startup # Powered by Twitter Tools
January 01—
Twitter Updates for 2012-01-27
http://t.co/zgAn9d1Z Predictions for Google's 2012 # Stay safe tonight friends in Minnesota ! # Supposedly a high of about 70 here in tx. No winter for us! # What to do to start more mobilization efforts in new places this year? Thinking about small local round tables to discuss. Like to Join me? # http://t.co/BL1t8ZeR Somalia: ICRC sends urgently needed medical supplies to Middle Juba # http://t.co/HI791mue Record number of murders # http://t.co/lzlUStyG Review of Chrislam: How Missionaries are Promoting an Islamized Gospel # http://t.co/SnkYcaIg Recruiting programmers to your startup # Powered by Twitter Tools
Twitter Updates for 2012-01-27
http://t.co/zgAn9d1Z Predictions for Google's 2012 # Stay safe tonight friends in Minnesota ! # Supposedly a high of about 70 here in tx. No winter for us! # What to do to start more mobilization efforts in new places this year? Thinking about small local round tables to discuss. Like to Join me? # http://t.co/BL1t8ZeR Somalia: ICRC sends urgently needed medical supplies to Middle Juba # http://t.co/HI791mue Record number of murders # http://t.co/lzlUStyG Review of Chrislam: How Missionaries are Promoting an Islamized Gospel # http://t.co/SnkYcaIg Recruiting programmers to your startup # Powered by Twitter Tools
December 15—
Unmarried = Failure?
There's an extensive new conversation that is happening around the idea of marriage and the unmarried. Being unmarried is not necessarily a "failure to launch." It does, however, have significant implications for the church, especially in the light of our declining birth rates.
Unmarried = Failure?
There's an extensive new conversation that is happening around the idea of marriage and the unmarried. Being unmarried is not necessarily a "failure to launch." It does, however, have significant implications for the church, especially in the light of our declining birth rates.
December 10—
The last 24 hours
I always miss you when you're gone. It's worst just before you come home.
The last 24 hours
I always miss you when you're gone. It's worst just before you come home.
December 09—
The role of houses of worship in the midst of a global depression
What can a church or house of worship do in the middle or immediate aftermath of total societal breakdown? Look at the Celts for an example.
The role of houses of worship in the midst of a global depression
What can a church or house of worship do in the middle or immediate aftermath of total societal breakdown? Look at the Celts for an example.
December 08—
5 Common Strategy Mistakes
(1) confusing marketing with strategy, (2) confusing competitive advantage with "what you're good at," (3) pursuing size above all else, because biggest=more profit, (4) thinking growth is a strategy, (5) focusing on high-growth markets, because that's where the profit is. It's a business-related article, but if you swap "disciples" for "profit" you'll see some applications almost immediately.
5 Common Strategy Mistakes
(1) confusing marketing with strategy, (2) confusing competitive advantage with "what you're good at," (3) pursuing size above all else, because biggest=more profit, (4) thinking growth is a strategy, (5) focusing on high-growth markets, because that's where the profit is. It's a business-related article, but if you swap "disciples" for "profit" you'll see some applications almost immediately.
Tactics
ideas, resources, practicals
MIT Seminar: Creative experimentation & managing complex operating systems
“Creative experimentation: developing a skill critical for managing complex operating systems,” part 2, MIT SDM Systems Thinking Webinar Series. Jan. 30, Open to all. The blog that reported this has to do with managing hospitals, but this could be quite useful in many mission settings.
“Creative experimentation: developing a skill critical for managing complex operating systems,” part 2, MIT SDM Systems Thinking Webinar Series. Jan. 30, Open to all. The blog that reported this has to do with managing hospitals, but this could be quite useful in many mission settings.
Startups, Tribes, Roles, Recruiting
Startup Tribes: Tips on Roles and Recruiting is an interesting article cross-relating “tribes” to “business teams.” Maybe some of this can be cross-related to pioneer ministry startups?
Startup Tribes: Tips on Roles and Recruiting is an interesting article cross-relating “tribes” to “business teams.” Maybe some of this can be cross-related to pioneer ministry startups?
2 keys to my day: execution and gratitude
Two simple, paper-based journals: neither tech dependent, both always available to me.
Two simple, paper-based journals: neither tech dependent, both always available to me.
9 tools for building a habit of executing
Most people don't execute well. These tools have helped me as I try to get better at.
Most people don't execute well. These tools have helped me as I try to get better at.
31 resources I regularly use
An updated 2012 list of resources that I regularly use living life "in the cloud."
An updated 2012 list of resources that I regularly use living life "in the cloud."
Building an internal prayer network 2
Is anyone using Google+ for Apps, or Facebook, for internal prayer sharing?
Is anyone using Google+ for Apps, or Facebook, for internal prayer sharing?
Backing up your cloud
This tool will keep hackers (or you, on accident!) from deleting precious information.
This tool will keep hackers (or you, on accident!) from deleting precious information.
Building Extraordinary Prayer
What specific systems do you use to share prayer requests & build prayer in your organization?
What specific systems do you use to share prayer requests & build prayer in your organization?
Treat newcomers as church members
Treat newcomers as if they were already believers, and begin discipling them now.
Treat newcomers as if they were already believers, and begin discipling them now.
A strategy for using Twitter
Because this is such an important tool for me, it’s important that I have a good strategy for using it.
Because this is such an important tool for me, it’s important that I have a good strategy for using it.
Efficiency is not effectiveness
There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently what should not be done at all.
There is nothing so useless as doing efficiently what should not be done at all.
Doing nothing can be better
Doing nothing can be better than doing something, especially if the reason for action is bad.
Doing nothing can be better than doing something, especially if the reason for action is bad.
My 7 steps to get retweeted
Everyone has their "7 simple ways to build a twitter audience." Here's mine, for what it's worth.
Everyone has their "7 simple ways to build a twitter audience." Here's mine, for what it's worth.
Spouse Hacks 2: Learn your spouse
What makes your spouse run smoother? An important part of member health!
What makes your spouse run smoother? An important part of member health!
Missions 2.0: “On the wings of business”
J.D. Greear on the next wave of missions and the wings of business. My thoughts.
J.D. Greear on the next wave of missions and the wings of business. My thoughts.
World Aids Day 2011: Storified Summaries
Storified collection of articles related to HIV/AIDS and progress.
Storified collection of articles related to HIV/AIDS and progress.
If you don’t remember your conversion
...you might not be able to envision why someone would not have been converted.
...you might not be able to envision why someone would not have been converted.
Doing the unpopular: or, the problem with Google, Klout, Facebook, and the like
It's not surprising many missionaries aren't popular.
It's not surprising many missionaries aren't popular.
Gamification
Achievements are low-grade celebratory gateways to skill learning, and keep people engaged.
Achievements are low-grade celebratory gateways to skill learning, and keep people engaged.
Conspiracy theories, stickiness, and evangelization
An interesting if (too-?) short post that explores the “stickiness” of conspiracy theories.
An interesting if (too-?) short post that explores the “stickiness” of conspiracy theories.
Contexts
the situations we're in
Stratfor 2012: A Generational Shift
Jan 27—Reading the forecast in the light of generational dynamics.
Jan 27—Reading the forecast in the light of generational dynamics.
Drones with a license to kill
Jan 27—The Future of Warfare, John Robb, Global Guerrillas. Autonomous drones with 2-ton weapon bay: they can make their own “kill decision.” Very worrying, esp. if this tech gets out to more oppressive nations.
Jan 27—The Future of Warfare, John Robb, Global Guerrillas. Autonomous drones with 2-ton weapon bay: they can make their own “kill decision.” Very worrying, esp. if this tech gets out to more oppressive nations.
Iran sanctions, oil rises, impact
Jan 27—At best, a potential oil price. At worst, a military crisis. Watch carefully.
Jan 27—At best, a potential oil price. At worst, a military crisis. Watch carefully.
Tuareg: Fighting in Mali, impact in Libya
Jan 27—Map of Recent Tuareg Rebel Attacks in Mali, Sahel Blog. Links to analysis by Reuters, AP. In the past, Col Qadhafi of Libya was the primary force defusing the conflict. The Tuareg are unreached.
Jan 27—Map of Recent Tuareg Rebel Attacks in Mali, Sahel Blog. Links to analysis by Reuters, AP. In the past, Col Qadhafi of Libya was the primary force defusing the conflict. The Tuareg are unreached.
Mourning the passing of Mike O’Rear
Jan 14—He was a blessing to everyone who knew him, me not the least. My tribute here.
Jan 14—He was a blessing to everyone who knew him, me not the least. My tribute here.
Southern Europe’s population change
Dec 28—Exploring the complexities of population declining, aging, and rising death rates.
Dec 28—Exploring the complexities of population declining, aging, and rising death rates.
Northern Europe’s population growth
Dec 27—Mostly from immigration: for every 1 child born, 3 move in. Issues ahead!
Dec 27—Mostly from immigration: for every 1 child born, 3 move in. Issues ahead!
Eastern European population decline
Dec 26—It's massive, but not caused by declines in births. Instead, its mostly a spiking death rate.
Dec 26—It's massive, but not caused by declines in births. Instead, its mostly a spiking death rate.
Barna Trends, missions, and pluralists
Dec 21—How a life of purpose, one that matters, can impact a pluralist crowd.
Dec 21—How a life of purpose, one that matters, can impact a pluralist crowd.
The short-term future of North Korea
Dec 19—If anyone tells you he knows what will happen next in North Korea, he’s lying. That said...
Dec 19—If anyone tells you he knows what will happen next in North Korea, he’s lying. That said...
China: Feeding the Left Behind
Dec 14—130 million children, elderly and women are "left behind" as 250 million migrate to the cities.
Dec 14—130 million children, elderly and women are "left behind" as 250 million migrate to the cities.
Tiananmen Square and the Arab Spring
Dec 07—Nothing much changed immediately after Tiananmen--or after much of the Arab Spring.
Dec 07—Nothing much changed immediately after Tiananmen--or after much of the Arab Spring.
Saleh signs deal for transfer of power and immunity
Nov 23—New event in Yemen. Curated links to follow shortly.
Nov 23—New event in Yemen. Curated links to follow shortly.
China’s Healing Touch in Africa
Nov 23—Health diplomacy, and how the Chinese today are like the Celtic missionaries of old.
Nov 23—Health diplomacy, and how the Chinese today are like the Celtic missionaries of old.
“In 30 years, there will be no Christians left” [in the Middle East]?
Nov 21—A chilling trend being discussed anecdotally, although I have yet to see verified numbers.
Nov 21—A chilling trend being discussed anecdotally, although I have yet to see verified numbers.
Some persecuted church links
Nov 11—Prayer for persecuted church video offered by the A/G INDONESIA – West Java, Muslim and Christian intellectuals against mayor’s attempts to cancel Protestant church TURKEY – Erdogan’s religious acrobatics: Nicaea council church back to being a mosque Kazakhstan: Prison mosques, churches, and prayer rooms closed down Egyptian Government Report Absolves Army of Maspero Massacre of Coptic Christians Boko Haram attacks nine churches in Nigeria (on Nov. 4)
Nov 11—Prayer for persecuted church video offered by the A/G INDONESIA – West Java, Muslim and Christian intellectuals against mayor’s attempts to cancel Protestant church TURKEY – Erdogan’s religious acrobatics: Nicaea council church back to being a mosque Kazakhstan: Prison mosques, churches, and prayer rooms closed down Egyptian Government Report Absolves Army of Maspero Massacre of Coptic Christians Boko Haram attacks nine churches in Nigeria (on Nov. 4)
Regional Political Wrapup for Mid-Year 2011
Jul 31—In this post we cover some of the pivotal events of the month which impact the task of missions. For each region we will provide a brief summation as well as some scenarios or forecasts for the short-term future of these regions. The scenarios are typically numbered A to D, with A and B “most probable” and C and D being “less probable” or “least probable”. In some instances there is only a Scenario A as nothing else seems remotely probable at the moment. [private] Africa North Africa. Libya. Much talk, but no immediate end to the civil war is [...]
Jul 31—In this post we cover some of the pivotal events of the month which impact the task of missions. For each region we will provide a brief summation as well as some scenarios or forecasts for the short-term future of these regions. The scenarios are typically numbered A to D, with A and B “most probable” and C and D being “less probable” or “least probable”. In some instances there is only a Scenario A as nothing else seems remotely probable at the moment. [private] Africa North Africa. Libya. Much talk, but no immediate end to the civil war is [...]
Boko Haram
Jul 22—A new fundamentalist Islamic group is becoming well known in northern Nigeria. It has a very long official name but locals call it “Boko Haram,” a name which apparently means something on the order of “Western or non-Islamic education is a sin.” It seeks sharia law in northern Nigeria and has been active since 2002, but became well known internationally after violent attacks in 2010 and 2011. Boko Haram rejects virtually everything to do with Western thinking. In addition to attacks on various governmental buildings and people, Boko Haram has bombed beer gardens and on July 10 bombed the All [...]
Jul 22—A new fundamentalist Islamic group is becoming well known in northern Nigeria. It has a very long official name but locals call it “Boko Haram,” a name which apparently means something on the order of “Western or non-Islamic education is a sin.” It seeks sharia law in northern Nigeria and has been active since 2002, but became well known internationally after violent attacks in 2010 and 2011. Boko Haram rejects virtually everything to do with Western thinking. In addition to attacks on various governmental buildings and people, Boko Haram has bombed beer gardens and on July 10 bombed the All [...]