Is it possible that

(1) the “more Christian” areas of the world have developed church service models which are geared toward a more demographic form of growth (particularly during a more rural time period)? Demographic growth means children born in Christian households are raised to be Christians, marry Christians, and raise Christian children, repeating the cycle. Optimizing for this means a focus on Sunday School, teaching, facilitating youth events, facilitating life-point transitions, etc.

(2) BUT: they are now struggling to urbanize and shift with cultural norms.

  • Urbanization and globalization are changing the distribution and makeup of the church community
  • We are more mobile than ever, so a church loses people to migration and economic depression in an area. A depression/recession could spell a downward spiral for a church as its best/brightest/youngest migrate elsewhere in search of work
  • Multiple cultures are coming in
  • Most of all, cultural norms about marriage and childbearing are impacting demographic growth in a significant way. Fewer women are getting married; they are marrying later in life; they are having fewer children. With the slack in childbearing, the church is losing its primary source of new converts.

(3) We need to replace demographic growth with conversion growth: re-attracting the backslidden, or those new college students who are migrating into our area but more interested in sleeping in on Sunday morning than going to church (read about this here, here and here), or those newly-marrieds who now, for a brief moment, are open to changing their habits (and one of the habits, though not mentioned in the linked article, might be church attendance).

(4) the current church service model, optimized toward demographic growth (helping believers marry believers & raise believing children) by its nature does not work well in attracting growth-by-conversion.

(4) which is why disciple-makers from high-conversion areas have the experience & thinking necessary to go into areas where demographic growth is now slacking off (e.g. America, Europe) and start high-conversion-focused ministries where locals cannot?

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@jdpayne tweets, “Missiological challenge: Take these 25 cities: http://bit.ly/IQV9Hrcalculate the lostness: http://bit.ly/IRB0kG share it with us.”

The 25 cities are:

1. San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, 61% AC.

2. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, 60% AC.

3. New York-Newark-Edison, 65% AC.

4. Champaign-Urbana. 69% AC.

5. Durham, NC, 69% AC.

6. Gainesville, FL, 66% AC.

7. Ithaca, NY, 71% AC.

8. Ann Arbor, MI, 66% AC.

9. Trenton-Ewing, NJ. 69% AC.

10. Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, 68% AC.

11. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, 60% AC.

12. Corvallis, OR, 60% AC.

13. New Haven-Milford, CT, 66% AC.

14. Boulder, CO, 61% AC.

15. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, 67% AC.

16. Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, 66% AC.

17. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, 65% AC.

18. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, 68% AC.

19. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, 66% AC.

20. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, 67% AC.

21. Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, 69% AC.

22. Baltimore-Towson, 67% AC.

23. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, 67% AC

24. Denver-Aurora, 61% AC

25. Ames, IA, 71% AC

AC = Affiliated Christians, members of a church (includes Christians of all traditions). I haven’t gone through the evangelical numbers at this point, so I guess I’ve only completed half the challenge (in listing the 25 and comparing to AC).

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One of the key principles that we at MUP focus on is to always facilitate the discovery process rather than to teach. I’ve been pondering other applications of this process recently.

1. Is it possible to do all of one’s social networking posts in a “purely discovery” mode – e.g. using questions, short posts, prodding discussion, etc?

2. Is it possible to do Adult Sunday School in this mode: share the “Scripture passage” (or perhaps the bigger passage around the lesson “memory verse”), ask the key questions: (1) what is God doing, (2) what should we be obeying, (3) who can we share this story with? Let the class do all the discussion? Do no teaching? Don’t answer questions? Just ask, “What do you think? What does the Scripture say? How can you obey the Scripture this week?”

3. Is it possible to teach all Perspectives lessons (even lessons like the life of William Carey, a biography for example) using a “discovery” mode? Maybe, write out a brief, succinct form of the biography. Share it around, spend the first 15 minutes of the class reading it in tables or pairs. Then, ask the questions: (1) what was God doing in the life of William Carey? (2) how did Carey respond? (3) Do we see God doing this in our life? (4) What should we be doing in response? Or similar questions? What questions would you add?

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Krish Kandiah wrote this article, about Saddleback recruiting leaders to plant a church in London. The comments on this article are fascinating from so many different view points.

Take the comments and put them in bolder questions to highlight some of the ways that we think:

(1) is there a right size for a church, so that it can only be “half full”? How do you determine the “right size” for a church? [clearly, in the comments we are defining the right size of the church as being the maximum occupancy of the building it is presently in. If the building is less than full, the church is failing. When the church blows out its occupancy, it has wildly succeeded. This means you really ought to choose a new building with a maximum occupancy where your current regular attendership is about 80 to 90% of its size, so that at Easter you can blow it out.]

(2) which comes first, organizational vision or community vision? When is it ever the right time to plant a church? Would an “unreached area” ever ask for a church? [if businesses "sought the perceived needs of the community" you'd never have the iPhone or iPod or iPad]

(3) “we run it ourselves…” ?! I know it goes against those denominations, but I think this is the way churches ought to be run to begin with.

(4) we should “fill up the churches over in America before planting churches abroad” – if this is based on #1 above, we would never send missionaries anywhere. Or rarely, at any rate.

(5) If you plant a church in a place where there are other churches, it must mean you think the other churches aren’t doing it right. [London, however, is rapidly becoming a "World B" heavily evangelized majority non-Christian country with lots of World A unevangelized individuals, because of the influx of immigrants.]

(6) What about Nigeria? Hmm. Maybe Saddleback should recruit a Nigerian pastor. Africans in Europe are known to be among the best and most prolific church planters…

What do you think? What thoughts come to your mind? What questions do they reveal?

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We know that there are many UPGs coming to America as diaspora groups–Saudi, Thai, Vietnamese, and Iraqi just to name four obvious groups. There’s a lot of complexities involved in identifying the groups that are here, and even more in identifying which ones are unreached (because a lot of Christians from unreached countries come to America for one reason or another) and developing strategies to reach them.

Today I learned about an effort to map the groups within the 100 largest metropolitan areas of the United States. Some 65% of America’s population live in these 100 MSAs, and if you map the peoples within those areas, you will have mapped all of the UPGs in the USA (there’s quite a lot of intellectual work in this) with the one exception of the Native American groups (which are a special case, and for which a different approach to mapping them is being taken).

Note that I’m not saying you will have mapped all the unreached individuals. Rather, the idea is that you won’t find a new, unique UPG in a city outside those 100 MSAs (at least theoretically).

The effort is being championed by the IMB and several of my friends there. You can read more about it and get involved at http://www.usapeoplegroups.org.

 

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“Five myths about venture capital” (http://bit.ly/zYScov) is an excellent article worth reading. The five myths outlined in the article are, briefly:

1. Venture investing is a good way to make money (not unless you are in the top 10%)

2. Venture capitalists are rich (not unless you are in the top 5 to 10%; failure rate of VC firms was close to 50%)

3. You must connect to Silicon Valley to succeed (nope, most VCs are not in the Valley)

4. These days it costs less to build a large company (no, costs less to build a SMALL company)

5. Ideas matter (no, ideas are commodities; execution matters).

I see many parallels between technology startups and pioneer mission efforts. The venture capitalists in the mission world are donors and “incubators”—organizations who help get pioneer efforts started by coaching them through the startup phase. Agencies that recruit, train, and deploy startup teams are like incubators. An example is a YWAM base: people join the base as new YWAMers, but eventually they go out and start a new Base with a new ministry. So, what can we learn from this article?

1. Mission investing and development is risky and requires patience.

Missionary efforts are not “for-profit,” but even if you substitute “disciples” or “churches” for “profits” or “revenue,” they are still risky. Mission efforts take a lot of time and persistence to show results. Zwemer, Carey, Judson and other famous missionary heroes all labored for years, even decades, before seeing even one convert. David Watson, a pioneer church planter, once said on average it took two to three years to see a church planting movement start. Lots of mission efforts fail or burn out. Persistence is key.

2. Mission investors are often not rich.

I can’t tell you the number of people who have supported us (and likely support you) while living very modest lifestyles. You can’t look at a person and judge their willingness to join in partnership with your ministry on the basis of their car, clothes, etc. I theorize that the flashier the lifestyle, the more likely it is supported by debt–and therefore the less likely they have funds available to help. (Or skills, talents, relational networks, like-minded values, etc.)

The corollary of this is: just because you aren’t rich, doesn’t mean you should think yourself incapable of helping something get started. Even a few resources wisely invested can be the levers that change the world. You may be rich in encouragement, or personal connections, or time spent mobilizing other workers.

3. Mission investors are not in likely places.

Investors and incubators may be found less among “Bible belts” or historically mission passionate denominations and more in odd places. Especially, I theorize investors are more likely found in places that intersect non-Christian regions (particularly places with large numbers of non-Christian immigrants), because there Christians are more familiar with the need for missions. Investors might also be found among entrepreneurial startups and other business-friendly places that may not know the ‘mission lingo’ but as a result of globalization have a passion for the lost in other places. Keep your eyes open. Be flexible.

4. It doesn’t costs less to build a large missionary effort because we can use nationals.

It still costs a lot because you have to sustain things over time. The average missionary budget is going to be about $100,000 per year. Why? Remember many teams operate in high-cost unreached urban areas in the Middle East, or places like Japan, China, Indonesia–and life there is not cheap despite what our preconceptions might be. Plus, there are costs of ministry, collaboration, travel, health, children, etc. If you have a team of missionary units and they labor for 2 to 3 years you can easily be budgeting $1 million or more for an effort amongst an unengaged group. This is going to be necessary in many places because there just are not enough local efforts to reach into the unengaged peoples–that’s why they are unengaged. Of course, not all of these workers need to be Westerners—but there will still be a cost.

5. Ideas or strategies or resources or methods are the most important.

No, as in business, what really matters is execution: discipleship, life-sharing, intentionality, reproducibility, dedication, persistence, long-term being-in-the-place, incarnation. There are no “shortcuts.”

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March 13, 2012

Passion, participation and preferential attachment: why the childless church mostly loses

In Western and developed nations, both the marriage rate and the childbirth rates are falling. This trend, if it continues, represents an important opportunity for church growth within specific regions.   1. In older times and in agricultural societies, the average family had many children. As they grew up, they would help work on the [...]

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March 11, 2012

What America can learn from the European church

“What America can learn from the European church (part 1),” Paul Maconochie, MikeBreen.com, 11 March 2012. Here’s an interesting post that discusses how British Christians, faced with churches which are seldom attended, have been learning to “go and make disciples” rather than wait for people to come into the building. Related: Britain in the year [...]

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March 11, 2012

Mosque building boom in America

“Answering the call,” Economist, 10 Mar 2012. Since September 2001, the number of mosques in the USA has doubled, from 1,209 in 2000 to 2,106 to 2011. One reason: the number of Muslims in America has grown. Another reason: Muslims are moving into suburbs, and building new mosques there. This doesn’t mean Islamic influence in [...]

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March 7, 2012

Anonymous takes down Vatican website

“Hacker group Anonymous takes down Vatican website,” Al-Arabiya.net, 7 March 2012. First successful attack on a religious, Christian website that I am aware of. We can expect more of this in the future, I’m afraid. They claimed to be targeting the “’corrupt’ Catholic church” for its corruption, and not “against the Christian religion or the [...]

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March 7, 2012

Help MissioNexus create an image statement and get a chance to win an iPad (maybe iPad 3 if it truly comes out?)

Your chance to help MissioNexus develop its image and win an iPad 3: http://www.missionexus.org/image/ Crowd Sourcing Opportunity: Help us identify an Image Statement and win an iPad! At the core of organizational identity is a vision and mission statement. But we live in a visual culture where the power of an image cannot be overlooked. [...]

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March 5, 2012

When declines in church growth signal success

Is there ever a time when a decline in church growth rates is acceptable? The answer is yes. To see why, let’s think through why churches grow. 1. Let’s start by considering the difference between the growth in numbers and the rate of growth. By “growth in numbers” we mean the number of people added [...]

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March 5, 2012

The power of doubling

Here is an article by Robert Scoble talking about a new app, Highlight, for the mobile market. It’s worth reading for his analysis of the doubling effect and it’s power on markets. This doubling effect is also found in church planting movements. I would recommend reading it and consider the importance and power of doubling [...]

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March 3, 2012

Bibles found in Bin Laden’s Compound

“Bibles found in Bin Landen compound prompt speculations of ‘jihad teachings,’” Al Arabiya. Certain lines were highlighted and pages were folded over, indicating they had been read. Some speculate he was searching the Bible for texts that supported jihad. But clearly the Bibles were being read, so he (and others) had access to what they [...]

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March 3, 2012

North Korea and the power of Propaganda

Two interesting articles on North Korea. We often wonder why it hasn’t fallen yet. Here are a couple of looks at the power of media, communication, and propaganda in shaping outlook. Why North Korea may muddle along The genius of propaganda

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March 3, 2012

Why Google+ didn’t work out for me—or many others

“The Abysmal Google+ Numbers: Users Spending 3 Minutes per Month on the Site,” Atlantic Science & Tech. Google+ works great for certain niche groups (like people who have huge audiences that follow them wherever they go) but for most people it is a hollow echo point that seems to be rapidly abandoned. G+ may work [...]

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March 3, 2012

The fragility of early networks

“How One Ship’s Anchor Disrupted Internet Access in 6 Countries,” Atlantic Science & Tech. The Internet and the web seems magical, resilient, and redundant—but it is at times very fragile. Especially at the edges, as in Africa. Webs, decentralized networks, swarms, etc., are always most fragile and vulnerable where they are newest, and must be [...]

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March 3, 2012

Getting used to Google magic makes it harder to work with the less magical

“Google-Trained Minds Can’t Deal with Terrible Research Database UI,” Atlantic Science & Tech. Makes an interesting point: when people (e.g. a generation) get used to something that works like magic (e.g. Google search), it becomes much more difficult to work with searches that don’t work like magic. If something doesn’t show up on Google easily [...]

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March 3, 2012

The characters you meet in a social community

“The 20 Characters You’ll Meet on Every Neighborhood Email List,” Atlantic Science & Technology. Here’s a fun little article that talks about the standard “characters” you meet in certain settings. Are some of these characters in church committees (like mission committees)? Are different characters found in church committees? Is there a danger in generalizing? or [...]

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March 3, 2012

Local is defined by how far we are willing to travel for commerce

“The United States of Craigslist,” Richard Florida, The Atlantic. In this article, the author looks at different ways to define geographic regions other than states and metropolitan areas. What if we used, for example, Craiglist? The graphic map shows a higher degree of natural, social, economic, transactional “local” than legal boundaries: this is what is [...]

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