New Events
Coronavirus
(it is dominating the news. But it is beginning to impact all mission agencies, so I’ve chosen to continue devoting significant space to it.)
Dashboard: 127k known cases, 4.7k deaths, 68k recovered - Link … 4.7k deaths / 127k cases = Case Fatality Rate of 3.7% globally … Doubling Rate outside of China - every 3 to 6 days, depending on country
Top countries hit: China, Italy, Iran, S Korea, France, Spain, Germany, US … all >1k known and confirmed infections (many unknowns possible)
Impact
What coronavirus does to the body - Link … Vast majority of cases (esp. among young) are mild, but 10 to 20% of cases need hospitalization … hospitalization, if needed, will require supportive care over several weeks … this care allows them to outlast the worst effects of the inflammation … some % of those hospitalized will not survive, % is higher for elderly or already-sick
How to not get sick (when traveling, and other tips) - Link … masks might keep you from spreading it, but uncertain they will/won’t help you avoid it … … (most things I'm reading say the standard basic masks won't help) … wash your hands! …
Mysteriously affecting the elderly, not the kids - Link … no one knows why. But it’s good news/bad news depending on your age, at least. … some agencies needing to take special precautions due to age of workers
Prevalence
Tests show new virus lives on some surfaces for up to 3 days - Link
Countries
Korea death rate kept low by virus testing blitz - Link … didn’t put curbs on internal movement, instead tested 100s of 1000s, targeted quarantine
Taiwan ‘rapidly produced, implemented 124 action items' - Link … border control, case identification, quarantine, education …
Iran is facing a massively devastating pandemic, hard to know full impact … top advisers, government officials, military personnel all infected - Link … mass graves detectable via satellite - Link
Iraq tells people not to visit religious sites - Link … banned all public gatherings, trying to avoid Iran’s Qom super-spreader
Germany: ‘Up to 70% could become infected' - Link
Italy - “confusion & fear sweep through Italy amid lockdown” - Link
Stopping the spread in Syrian refugee camps is ‘mission impossible' - Link
Metro Manila, Philippines under mandatory quarantine - Link
USA: the days of ignoring the virus are over - Link … State Department issues level 3 “reconsider travel” alert - Link … Coronavirus testing increases, shortage of supplies possible - Link … “Confronting the challenges of large-scale testing” - Link … some states launching ‘drive-through testing' - Link … lots and lots of city-wide states of emergency being issued, large gatherings cancelled
Our World in Data is attempting to estimate the testing done worldwide - Link … you don’t see what you don’t look for
Daily Life
Life in Seoul amidst the epidemic - Link
China’s new normal: life springing back after weeks of lockdown - Link … makeshift hospitals closed, don’t confuse signs with actual normality …
Coronavirus exacerbates divide between middle-class, rural underclass in China - Link … “the discontent of migrants looms over China” …
Border closings, quarantines will affect mission travel, short-term trips
I found this regularly-updated survey of air travel cancellation policies - Link
China tightens borders to prevent re-importing infections - Link … quarantine facilities for all international visitors …
India suspends tourist visas after March 13 - Link … wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot more of that in other countries … … closes border with Myanmar - Link … northeast India closes borders as well - Link
Saudi Arabia bans international travel - Link
Thailand: arrivals from 4 countries must declare self-quarantine details - Link … ‘so they can be contacted and officials can go monitor them'…
US suspends travel from EU - Link
Israel will quarantine anyone entering - Link
Mongolia closed down all international flights - Link
30,000 Afghans reportedly left Iran for Afghanistan - Link
Future
If coronavirus goes away in the summer on its own, that’s worse news - Link … it means it can recur in the fall, and efforts to stop it failed …
Churches
Should churches forsake gathering for the sake of the vulnerable? Link … good piece from Ed Stetzer arguing they should consider it …
7 lessons from Singapore’s churches for when the virus reaches yours - Link
Lots of US churches deciding to close - Link
USA: why mainline Protestants might fear COVID-19 the most - Link … Episcopalians: 50% over age 65, average age 59 … LCMS: 41.9% over 65, etc … … “Their houses of worship are prime targets for the spread of disease” … “if we’re to keep 3 feet apart, sitting in church could be a danger”
‘Proselytizing Robots': inside South Korean church at outbreak center - Link … not sure I’d call this a ‘church' in the strictest sense? But, interesting …
Economic Hit: will affect cost of travel, but also donations
Oil price collapse beyond any government’s control - Asia Times … ‘hit by both a demand and supply shock, has fallen nearly 50%' … was $115/barrel 18 months ago, now $30/barrel. … Fiscal break-even prices: Saudi, $83; Russia, $42; Iran, $195 … … probability of a systemic crisis is heightened …
Thousands of flights canceled worldwide due to demand shrinkage - BBC … lots of reports of summer short-term trips being canceled… … 4 most heavily hit countries also account for 25% of global airline revenue - Link
I don’t have a good collection of economic analysis yet, … Coronavirus affecting supply chains - Link … but also the demand side (people don’t want to buy) … and service sector (restaurants, hotels, theaters, etc)
#Other Events (not on the radar)
Sahel violence: Dozens dead in latest Burkina Faso attack - Link … 43 killed Monday in attack on two villages …
Ethiopia’s Ambo city: “from freedom to repression under Abiy Ahmed” - Link … security forces try to curb growth of ethnically-inspired rebel, opposition groups …
Guinea-Bissau’s ongoing political chaos - Link … ‘could boost cocaine trade' … analysts do not agree how many coups in 46 years of independence
Desert locust situation update - Link … in huge chunks of East Africa …
Targeted for wanting to go to school in Cameroon - Link … ‘a boycott of education … to get political recognition' …
Enhancing water security and the role of diplomacy in Africa’s Mara Basin - Link … vital water source for 1 million people …
Afghanistan: US begins withdrawing troops - Link … watching to see what happens in the near future, remembering Libya …
A new ‘emperor': Russia girds for 16 more years of Putin - Link … “The quasi-monarchy that we basically now have is a very good thing”
Philippines: Martial law has lapsed in Mindanao, but little has changed - Link … curfews, checkpoints, military remain in place …
‘We were like animals': inside Greece’s secret site for migrants - Link … migrants & refugees are among the most powerless and abused, worldwide …
New Data
I have ordered the new World Christian Encyclopedia, now available in the USA - Link
New Longreads
‘Educate children in their mother tongue', says UN expert - link … ‘noticeably better academic results' + a lot of other benefits … but lots of languages are dying out?
China’s poorly planned cities: urban sprawl, rural underclass - Link … ‘urban sprawl diminishes efficiency, productivity from people concentration' … ‘hukou' = ‘apartheid without the racism'
Vivendi launches a comprehensive report, “Gen Z and entertainment” - Link … h/t Jeff R. GenZ: 8-second attention span, connected, inclusive, anxious
Book Review: The history of Christian missions in Guangxi, China - Link
Just for Luck: how does young China view superstition? Link
Why lifehacks won’t help you manage your time - Link … “you have to know yourself and your ‘prime time'”
New Technology
Amazon to start selling cashier-less technology to other retailers - Link … this could have a huge impact on the retail world … … I could envision this trend re-vitalizing malls where limited-personnel stores could be operated in secure environments …
Internet shutdown in Oromia, Ethiopia takes a heavy toll - Link … internet and phone service have been off for two months …
New Quotables
“Fear often has a way to masquerade itself as wisdom.” ~Pastor Andre Tan, City Church, Singapore