Projecting Cluster Populations to 2050
Joshua Project organizes People Groups into Clusters. Whereas there are thousands of people groups, there are only about 255 clusters. These clusters of groups are related to each other, and generally fall into one of three categories: a cluster that’s nearly all one group (e.g. Koreans), a group with a very large majority group and a few small minority groups (e.g. Turkic), and a cluster that’s made up of lots of small groups somewhat related to each other.
For each cluster, I calculated the portion of the population of that cluster’s constituent groups in each of the various UN regions. I then grabbed the UN region’s population in 2025 and 2050, and calculated what the Cluster’s population would be if it’s percentage of the region remained the same (this is a big assumption, but it’s a doable initial one). This helps us to see which clusters generally get bigger or remain the same or smaller, based on fluctuations in regional populations.
The result, for the least-reached clusters, is the following. It’s interesting to see where the remaining task could get bigger, and where it might even shrink.
| PeopleCluster | LR | TOTAL 2015 | TOTAL 2025 | TOTAL 2050 |
| Aceh of Sumatra | Y | 4,346,000 | 4,805,146 | 6,050,321 |
| Afar | Y | 3,136,000 | 4,134,919 | 9,309,380 |
| Aimaq | Y | 1,643,000 | 1,839,059 | 2,402,812 |
| Altaic | Y | 398,330 | 411,338 | 399,688 |
| Arab, Arabian | Y | 25,841,900 | 30,393,189 | 46,764,611 |
| Arab, Hassaniya | Y | 5,750,800 | 7,257,711 | 15,490,037 |
| Arab, Libyan | Y | 4,380,600 | 5,200,611 | 8,350,225 |
| Arab, Maghreb | Y | 70,293,300 | 83,087,648 | 132,186,860 |
| Arab, Shuwa | Y | 4,471,000 | 5,858,573 | 13,390,174 |
| Arab, Sudan | Y | 35,004,100 | 41,683,948 | 67,637,840 |
| Arab, Yemeni | Y | 25,211,200 | 29,762,355 | 46,253,815 |
| Assamese | Y | 5,116,300 | 5,726,827 | 7,482,354 |
| Atlantic-Wolof | Y | 6,776,900 | 8,731,480 | 19,778,683 |
| Azerbaijani | Y | 31,378,500 | 35,762,555 | 49,867,141 |
| Bali-Sasak | Y | 8,619,700 | 9,530,353 | 11,999,990 |
| Baloch | Y | 13,971,800 | 15,712,798 | 20,872,556 |
| Banjar of Kalimantan | Y | 5,550,000 | 6,136,346 | 7,726,480 |
| Bedouin, Arabian | Y | 20,639,800 | 24,328,199 | 37,570,507 |
| Bedouin, Saharan | Y | 3,551,100 | 4,218,334 | 6,778,349 |
| Beja | Y | 3,763,000 | 4,502,722 | 7,445,270 |
| Bengali | Y | 349,886,480 | 391,599,171 | 511,579,642 |
| Berber-Saharan | Y | 1,000,800 | 1,189,768 | 1,921,837 |
| Berber-Kabyle | Y | 6,552,300 | 7,663,757 | 11,866,540 |
| Berber-Riff | Y | 1,867,100 | 2,173,351 | 3,325,333 |
| Berber-Shawiya | Y | 2,495,500 | 2,920,232 | 4,530,504 |
| Bhil | Y | 20,507,300 | 22,954,431 | 29,990,984 |
| Bhojpur-Maithili | Y | 13,070,500 | 14,630,200 | 19,115,005 |
| Bhutanese | Y | 633,900 | 706,040 | 907,605 |
| Bouyei | Y | 3,202,000 | 3,336,271 | 3,303,882 |
| Bugi-Makassar of Sulawesi | Y | 11,101,600 | 12,274,460 | 15,455,188 |
| Burmese | Y | 36,093,800 | 39,907,763 | 50,262,093 |
| Kanuri-Saharan | Y | 11,021,400 | 14,295,126 | 32,530,536 |
| Chinese-Hui | Y | 14,590,700 | 15,207,445 | 15,074,497 |
| Filipino, Muslim | Y | 5,243,000 | 5,796,912 | 7,299,088 |
| Fulani / Fulbe | Y | 39,826,400 | 51,778,450 | 119,435,539 |
| Gond | Y | 20,707,400 | 23,178,409 | 30,283,621 |
| Gorontalo of Sulawesi | Y | 1,211,600 | 1,339,603 | 1,686,739 |
| Guera-Naba of Chad | Y | 494,700 | 673,789 | 1,702,765 |
| Gujarati | Y | 60,034,900 | 67,457,391 | 89,882,151 |
| Hausa | Y | 44,084,800 | 57,165,245 | 131,175,276 |
| Hindi | Y | 368,513,000 | 412,492,911 | 539,090,967 |
| Japanese | Y | 127,116,700 | 132,383,933 | 130,985,726 |
| Jat | Y | 72,051,100 | 80,648,941 | 105,371,422 |
| Jews | Y | 14,763,810 | 16,445,214 | 22,236,993 |
| Kannada | Y | 32,449,800 | 36,320,918 | 47,450,738 |
| Kashmiri | Y | 10,301,190 | 11,530,373 | 15,064,710 |
| Kazakh | Y | 15,440,200 | 17,581,824 | 23,474,661 |
| Kyrgyz | Y | 4,865,900 | 5,606,273 | 7,707,921 |
| Kurd | Y | 35,525,900 | 41,262,526 | 61,080,972 |
| Lampung of Sumatra | Y | 1,755,000 | 1,940,412 | 2,443,238 |
| Lao | Y | 3,782,200 | 4,172,441 | 5,240,330 |
| Li | Y | 1,897,000 | 1,973,886 | 1,942,305 |
| Madura of Java | Y | 7,678,000 | 8,489,164 | 10,688,994 |
| Maldivian | Y | 416,100 | 465,753 | 608,527 |
| Malinke | Y | 11,083,800 | 14,342,111 | 32,770,508 |
| Malinke-Bambara | Y | 6,143,700 | 7,926,202 | 17,995,310 |
| Malinke-Jula | Y | 2,385,400 | 3,090,072 | 7,077,356 |
| Marathi-Konkani | Y | 65,703,200 | 73,562,646 | 96,239,510 |
| Melayu of Sumatra | Y | 6,497,660 | 7,184,124 | 9,045,774 |
| Minangkabau-Rejang of Sumatra | Y | 7,613,000 | 8,417,297 | 10,598,504 |
| Mongolian | Y | 12,058,300 | 12,508,836 | 12,254,652 |
| Musi of Sumatra | Y | 4,548,000 | 5,028,487 | 6,331,537 |
| Nepali-Pahari | Y | 14,583,100 | 16,321,105 | 21,329,696 |
| Nosu | Y | 3,246,000 | 3,377,561 | 3,323,522 |
| Nubian | Y | 2,708,070 | 3,228,471 | 5,263,967 |
| Nuristan | Y | 350,900 | 392,773 | 513,175 |
| Ogan of Sumatra | Y | 562,000 | 621,374 | 782,393 |
| Oriya | Y | 18,235,700 | 20,410,037 | 26,660,116 |
| South Asian, other | Y | 26,393,730 | 29,492,319 | 39,288,801 |
| Ouaddai-Fur | Y | 3,982,100 | 5,032,096 | 10,256,077 |
| Parsee | Y | 161,200 | 178,605 | 228,687 |
| Pasemah of Sumatra | Y | 1,667,000 | 1,843,115 | 2,320,728 |
| Pashtun | Y | 51,767,700 | 57,966,715 | 75,878,654 |
| Persian | Y | 55,075,300 | 61,741,642 | 81,215,549 |
| Punjabi | Y | 96,734,080 | 108,324,807 | 141,898,235 |
| Rajasthan | Y | 24,943,160 | 27,906,864 | 36,436,671 |
| South Himalaya | Y | 6,317,740 | 7,071,160 | 9,236,822 |
| Shan | Y | 4,748,800 | 5,250,838 | 6,612,793 |
| Sindhi | Y | 15,854,300 | 17,775,839 | 23,413,881 |
| Somali | Y | 23,521,100 | 30,750,306 | 67,775,039 |
| Songhai | Y | 6,475,400 | 8,390,981 | 19,230,323 |
| Soninke | Y | 3,055,900 | 3,948,208 | 8,991,717 |
| Sunda-Betawi of Java | Y | 44,564,000 | 49,272,092 | 62,040,158 |
| Susu | Y | 1,716,600 | 2,224,584 | 5,099,561 |
| Tai | Y | 8,308,700 | 8,908,095 | 10,001,348 |
| Kadai | Y | 118,100 | 124,391 | 129,428 |
| Tajik | Y | 9,269,900 | 10,709,178 | 14,845,388 |
| Talysh | Y | 923,900 | 1,038,205 | 1,376,015 |
| Telugu | Y | 62,350,990 | 69,813,114 | 91,337,204 |
| Thai | Y | 55,184,900 | 60,991,902 | 76,744,746 |
| Tibetan | Y | 6,381,180 | 6,667,037 | 6,686,514 |
| Tuareg | Y | 3,397,100 | 4,371,184 | 9,802,974 |
| Tukangbesi of Sulawesi | Y | 1,233,580 | 1,363,905 | 1,717,339 |
| Turkish | Y | 60,819,300 | 71,042,767 | 107,354,809 |
| Turkmen | Y | 8,046,100 | 9,235,549 | 12,734,284 |
| Urdu Muslim | Y | 45,165,900 | 50,555,536 | 66,053,053 |
| Uyghur | Y | 15,590,100 | 16,553,146 | 17,785,355 |
| Uzbek | Y | 30,707,800 | 35,483,588 | 49,253,763 |
| Yao-Mien | Y | 6,266,000 | 6,567,294 | 6,686,304 |
| Zhuang | Y | 19,437,500 | 20,442,178 | 21,128,517 |
| Unclassified | Y | 3,200 | 3,440 | 4,099 |
| Luri-Bakhtiari | Y | 5,445,000 | 6,101,689 | 8,004,653 |
| Bantu, Swahili | Y | 5,902,500 | 7,654,689 | 16,568,128 |
| Banjara | Y | 7,694,000 | 8,612,123 | 11,252,121 |
| Domari | Y | 3,679,700 | 4,274,762 | 6,387,264 |
| Bania | Y | 44,371,300 | 49,666,117 | 64,890,987 |
| Brahmin | Y | 94,997,500 | 106,333,530 | 138,929,477 |
| Rajput | Y | 90,704,600 | 101,528,359 | 132,651,308 |