Projecting Cluster Populations to 2050

Joshua Project organizes People Groups into Clusters. Whereas there are thousands of people groups, there are only about 255 clusters. These clusters of groups are related to each other, and generally fall into one of three categories: a cluster that’s nearly all one group (e.g. Koreans), a group with a very large majority group and a few small minority groups (e.g. Turkic), and a cluster that’s made up of lots of small groups somewhat related to each other.

For each cluster, I calculated the portion of the population of that cluster’s constituent groups in each of the various UN regions. I then grabbed the UN region’s population in 2025 and 2050, and calculated what the Cluster’s population would be if it’s percentage of the region remained the same (this is a big assumption, but it’s a doable initial one). This helps us to see which clusters generally get bigger or remain the same or smaller, based on fluctuations in regional populations.

The result, for the least-reached clusters, is the following. It’s interesting to see where the remaining task could get bigger, and where it might even shrink.

 PeopleCluster LR TOTAL 2015 TOTAL 2025 TOTAL 2050 Aceh of Sumatra Y 4,346,000 4,805,146 6,050,321 Afar Y 3,136,000 4,134,919 9,309,380 Aimaq Y 1,643,000 1,839,059 2,402,812 Altaic Y 398,330 411,338 399,688 Arab, Arabian Y 25,841,900 30,393,189 46,764,611 Arab, Hassaniya Y 5,750,800 7,257,711 15,490,037 Arab, Libyan Y 4,380,600 5,200,611 8,350,225 Arab, Maghreb Y 70,293,300 83,087,648 132,186,860 Arab, Shuwa Y 4,471,000 5,858,573 13,390,174 Arab, Sudan Y 35,004,100 41,683,948 67,637,840 Arab, Yemeni Y 25,211,200 29,762,355 46,253,815 Assamese Y 5,116,300 5,726,827 7,482,354 Atlantic-Wolof Y 6,776,900 8,731,480 19,778,683 Azerbaijani Y 31,378,500 35,762,555 49,867,141 Bali-Sasak Y 8,619,700 9,530,353 11,999,990 Baloch Y 13,971,800 15,712,798 20,872,556 Banjar of Kalimantan Y 5,550,000 6,136,346 7,726,480 Bedouin, Arabian Y 20,639,800 24,328,199 37,570,507 Bedouin, Saharan Y 3,551,100 4,218,334 6,778,349 Beja Y 3,763,000 4,502,722 7,445,270 Bengali Y 349,886,480 391,599,171 511,579,642 Berber-Saharan Y 1,000,800 1,189,768 1,921,837 Berber-Kabyle Y 6,552,300 7,663,757 11,866,540 Berber-Riff Y 1,867,100 2,173,351 3,325,333 Berber-Shawiya Y 2,495,500 2,920,232 4,530,504 Bhil Y 20,507,300 22,954,431 29,990,984 Bhojpur-Maithili Y 13,070,500 14,630,200 19,115,005 Bhutanese Y 633,900 706,040 907,605 Bouyei Y 3,202,000 3,336,271 3,303,882 Bugi-Makassar of Sulawesi Y 11,101,600 12,274,460 15,455,188 Burmese Y 36,093,800 39,907,763 50,262,093 Kanuri-Saharan Y 11,021,400 14,295,126 32,530,536 Chinese-Hui Y 14,590,700 15,207,445 15,074,497 Filipino, Muslim Y 5,243,000 5,796,912 7,299,088 Fulani / Fulbe Y 39,826,400 51,778,450 119,435,539 Gond Y 20,707,400 23,178,409 30,283,621 Gorontalo of Sulawesi Y 1,211,600 1,339,603 1,686,739 Guera-Naba of Chad Y 494,700 673,789 1,702,765 Gujarati Y 60,034,900 67,457,391 89,882,151 Hausa Y 44,084,800 57,165,245 131,175,276 Hindi Y 368,513,000 412,492,911 539,090,967 Japanese Y 127,116,700 132,383,933 130,985,726 Jat Y 72,051,100 80,648,941 105,371,422 Jews Y 14,763,810 16,445,214 22,236,993 Kannada Y 32,449,800 36,320,918 47,450,738 Kashmiri Y 10,301,190 11,530,373 15,064,710 Kazakh Y 15,440,200 17,581,824 23,474,661 Kyrgyz Y 4,865,900 5,606,273 7,707,921 Kurd Y 35,525,900 41,262,526 61,080,972 Lampung of Sumatra Y 1,755,000 1,940,412 2,443,238 Lao Y 3,782,200 4,172,441 5,240,330 Li Y 1,897,000 1,973,886 1,942,305 Madura of Java Y 7,678,000 8,489,164 10,688,994 Maldivian Y 416,100 465,753 608,527 Malinke Y 11,083,800 14,342,111 32,770,508 Malinke-Bambara Y 6,143,700 7,926,202 17,995,310 Malinke-Jula Y 2,385,400 3,090,072 7,077,356 Marathi-Konkani Y 65,703,200 73,562,646 96,239,510 Melayu of Sumatra Y 6,497,660 7,184,124 9,045,774 Minangkabau-Rejang of Sumatra Y 7,613,000 8,417,297 10,598,504 Mongolian Y 12,058,300 12,508,836 12,254,652 Musi of Sumatra Y 4,548,000 5,028,487 6,331,537 Nepali-Pahari Y 14,583,100 16,321,105 21,329,696 Nosu Y 3,246,000 3,377,561 3,323,522 Nubian Y 2,708,070 3,228,471 5,263,967 Nuristan Y 350,900 392,773 513,175 Ogan of Sumatra Y 562,000 621,374 782,393 Oriya Y 18,235,700 20,410,037 26,660,116 South Asian, other Y 26,393,730 29,492,319 39,288,801 Ouaddai-Fur Y 3,982,100 5,032,096 10,256,077 Parsee Y 161,200 178,605 228,687 Pasemah of Sumatra Y 1,667,000 1,843,115 2,320,728 Pashtun Y 51,767,700 57,966,715 75,878,654 Persian Y 55,075,300 61,741,642 81,215,549 Punjabi Y 96,734,080 108,324,807 141,898,235 Rajasthan Y 24,943,160 27,906,864 36,436,671 South Himalaya Y 6,317,740 7,071,160 9,236,822 Shan Y 4,748,800 5,250,838 6,612,793 Sindhi Y 15,854,300 17,775,839 23,413,881 Somali Y 23,521,100 30,750,306 67,775,039 Songhai Y 6,475,400 8,390,981 19,230,323 Soninke Y 3,055,900 3,948,208 8,991,717 Sunda-Betawi of Java Y 44,564,000 49,272,092 62,040,158 Susu Y 1,716,600 2,224,584 5,099,561 Tai Y 8,308,700 8,908,095 10,001,348 Kadai Y 118,100 124,391 129,428 Tajik Y 9,269,900 10,709,178 14,845,388 Talysh Y 923,900 1,038,205 1,376,015 Telugu Y 62,350,990 69,813,114 91,337,204 Thai Y 55,184,900 60,991,902 76,744,746 Tibetan Y 6,381,180 6,667,037 6,686,514 Tuareg Y 3,397,100 4,371,184 9,802,974 Tukangbesi of Sulawesi Y 1,233,580 1,363,905 1,717,339 Turkish Y 60,819,300 71,042,767 107,354,809 Turkmen Y 8,046,100 9,235,549 12,734,284 Urdu Muslim Y 45,165,900 50,555,536 66,053,053 Uyghur Y 15,590,100 16,553,146 17,785,355 Uzbek Y 30,707,800 35,483,588 49,253,763 Yao-Mien Y 6,266,000 6,567,294 6,686,304 Zhuang Y 19,437,500 20,442,178 21,128,517 Unclassified Y 3,200 3,440 4,099 Luri-Bakhtiari Y 5,445,000 6,101,689 8,004,653 Bantu, Swahili Y 5,902,500 7,654,689 16,568,128 Banjara Y 7,694,000 8,612,123 11,252,121 Domari Y 3,679,700 4,274,762 6,387,264 Bania Y 44,371,300 49,666,117 64,890,987 Brahmin Y 94,997,500 106,333,530 138,929,477 Rajput Y 90,704,600 101,528,359 132,651,308