Earlier, I projected populations of people groups to 2050. Friends at Joshua Project sent me a variation of the sheet with % AGR, which caused me to wonder: what are the people group clusters where the remaining task is growing fastest? This is a simple calculation (pop. 2025 / pop. 2015, sort in descending order), yet very revealing.

Below are the least-reached clusters this methodology projects to be the fastest growing. (The Fulani and Hausa are two stunning examples; I’m not sure they would actually reach 100 million-plus by 2050, but these projections do reflect the actual growth rates of the regions they are in.) This is the biggest reason I am such a proponent of movements: we need Gospel spread that is both sustainable and faster than the population growth!

People ClusterLeast-ReachedTOTAL 2015TOTAL 2025TOTAL 2050Multiple
Guera-Naba of ChadY494,700673,7891,702,7653.44
Fulani / FulbeY39,826,40051,778,450119,435,5393.00
Arab, ShuwaY4,471,0005,858,57313,390,1742.99
HausaY44,084,80057,165,245131,175,2762.98
SusuY1,716,6002,224,5845,099,5612.97
SonghaiY6,475,4008,390,98119,230,3232.97
AfarY3,136,0004,134,9199,309,3802.97
Malinke-JulaY2,385,4003,090,0727,077,3562.97
MalinkeY11,083,80014,342,11132,770,5082.96
Kanuri-SaharanY11,021,40014,295,12632,530,5362.95
SoninkeY3,055,9003,948,2088,991,7172.94
Malinke-BambaraY6,143,7007,926,20217,995,3102.93
Atlantic-WolofY6,776,9008,731,48019,778,6832.92
TuaregY3,397,1004,371,1849,802,9742.89
SomaliY23,521,10030,750,30667,775,0392.88
Bantu, SwahiliY5,902,5007,654,68916,568,1282.81
Arab, HassaniyaY5,750,8007,257,71115,490,0372.69
Ouaddai-FurY3,982,1005,032,09610,256,0772.58
BejaY3,763,0004,502,7227,445,2701.98
NubianY2,708,0703,228,4715,263,9671.94
Arab, SudanY35,004,10041,683,94867,637,8401.93
Berber-SaharanY1,000,8001,189,7681,921,8371.92
Bedouin, SaharanY3,551,1004,218,3346,778,3491.91
Arab, LibyanY4,380,6005,200,6118,350,2251.91