January 27, 2012

Tuareg: Fighting in Mali, impact in Libya

Map of Recent Tuareg Rebel Attacks in Mali, Sahel Blog. Links to analysis by Reuters, AP. In the past, Col Qadhafi of Libya was the primary force defusing the conflict. The Tuareg are unreached.

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November 21, 2011

“In 30 years, there will be no Christians left” [in the Middle East]?

A chilling trend being discussed anecdotally, although I have yet to see verified numbers.

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November 15, 2011

A $300 billion windfall for friends of Libya

“Ruin & Rebuild: Warfare worth $300 billion Libya windfall,” RT.com. Rebuilding Libya may be worth that much to those who helped Libya through its recent war. Those who did not help may be left out in the cold: “Earlier it was the turn of German companies that expressed interest in taking part in effort to re-build Libya, but the NTC said ‘no’ to them. It was sort of ‘You did not participate in bombing and the no-fly zone, and since you did not take part in that, you will have no business opportunities either.’” In the long run, will there [...]

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October 20, 2011

Muammar Qaddafi, c1942-2011

A soul has just passed into immortality: we should mourn.

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October 19, 2011

Water Wars, 2: The Nile

The demands of other users are sparking tensions with Egypt.

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August 16, 2011

Berber renaissance in North Africa

“North-west Africa’s minority: Springtime for them too?” in The Economist. “There is a Berber renaissance taking place across north Africa.” Their heartland is the center of some of the most fierce fighting in Libya. The article concludes with a look at “pan-Berber solidarity” and but notes only one place does a single Berber identity exist: “virtually–on the Internet and among diaspora intellectuals.”

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August 15, 2011

Libya: is the plot twisting against Gaddafi?

After a weekend of intense battle, the rebels were mostly in control of Zawiya, whose oil refinery is the “holy grail.” Wars, after all, are less about ammunition and more about maneuverability: you can lose for want of gasoline. The Zawiya refinery and assistance from Tunisia have “kept Gaddafi’s forces moving.” With the refinery in the hands of the rebels, the road to Tunisia blocked, and the skies filled with NATO jets pounding Gaddafi forces, the route to victory might actually be short. The rebels are more confident and the government’s morale seems to be slipping. There was a high-ranking [...]

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August 15, 2011

Egypt: hundreds protest, but will it do any good?

“Egyptians rally for ‘civil state’“: hundreds clash with riot police in Cairo as they try to resurrect rallies aimed at pushing along promised reforms. via Al Jazeera. Important aspects of this element in Egypt’s narrative: hundreds, not thousands or tens of thousands, are involved. Riot police are already disrupting them. They are “trying to resurrect rallies” but “defying Egypt’s military rulers who are eager to prevent any demonstrations there since forcefully clearing a weeks-long sit-in by youth activists last week.” The demonstration in favor of a civil state is “a counter” to a July 30 rally that in favor of “Egypt’s [...]

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August 11, 2011

The dangers of democracy

“Who is going to have the most power” is the essential problem of the Arab Spring. The same problem, in different variations, is to be found in North America, Europe and China. In every variation, each group is afraid they will be put out of power, and will be kept out of power through any means necessary—including electoral fraud or oppression. Thus, while we recognize the value of democracy, we can be afraid of letting the other guy in when he wins the vote. In the context of the Middle East, a number of articles have recently been written about [...]

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August 10, 2011

Arab youth want change, but won’t be politicians

Sara Sorcher, “Arab Youth Still Want Change, But Won’t Be Politicians,” National Journal. The youth are interested in protesting the status quo, but they don’t have a vision of where they want to go. They don’t want to be part of the nitty-gritty work of change because they fear compromise and “selling out.” They can either (1) shout, (2) go abroad, or (3) remain silent. This article investigates how it’s so easy to be part of saying something is bad, but so hard to be part of finding the changes and doing the hard work. In the meantime, those who [...]

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August 8, 2011

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the Syrian Unrest

Simon Tisdale, “Turkey sends Syria a message that Britain cannot,” The Guardian. Britain and the US are seemingly powerless to do more than talk about how bad the situation in Syria is. Turkey may take more substantive steps: maybe even so far as to set up a safe haven in northern Syria protected by the Turkish military. J. David Goodman, “Saudi Arabia ramps up pressure on Syria,” New York Times. The Kingdom recalled its ambassador and issued a statement against Assad. Shortly afterward, Kuwait and Bahrain followed suit.

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July 28, 2011

North Africa Fall 2011 Panel Discussion

Date: August 29, 2011 Our next 2-hour Panel Discussion (better name than webinar, eh?), this time focused on North Africa. Our format: we spend 2 hours examining the various trends that impact North Africa. I will serve as the webinar facilitator, and introduce the various trends. You, our illustrious panelists, will get free reign to discuss the trend, specifically focusing on ministry options and opportunities for the church to be a blessing. In the words of Rudolf K. of South Africa (at our last webinar): where can the church make an investment that will change the future of the region? 1. [...]

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July 25, 2011

The children of North Africa are growing up, moving out, and not being replaced

Voice after Exit: Revolution and Migration in the Arab World, written in May 2011, documents some of the trends we discussed in the Demographics of North Africa. In short, a major demographic trend has occurred in North Africa. In the late 70s and 80s, rapid population growth was a serious problem in the region. But as we have documented, cultural changes have resulted in crashing fertility and population growth rates.

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July 22, 2011

Upcoming Webinar Plans: North Africa, more

We are in the process of developing a rough schedule for the webinars that will be forthcoming: far enough in advance that we can get a good mix of people for them. The schedule is presently as follows: North Africa, 8/29/2011 West Africa, 9/12/2011 Middle Africa, 9/26/2011 East Asia, 10/10/2011 South Asia, 10/24/2011 Central Asia, 11/7/2011 Southeast Asia, 11/21/2011 West Asia, 12/5/2011 For each of these seminars we have 14 participant slots (15 including me, the moderator). The idea is not for me to lecture, but rather for me to facilitate a conversation about each region around a general outline [...]

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July 22, 2011

Technology in North Africa

Technology, and most particularly the Internet in its very social incarnations (e.g. Facebook, Google+, Twitter, etc.), were all the rage during the uprisings in the Muslim world (and elsewhere) of 2009 and after. Yet there are distinct limitations to the power of technology which we would do well to remember. In this post we’ll look at the influx of technology, where it has been useful, and where hard non-technological work remains. 1. Internet usage is growing explosively in the region, and will continue to do so. a) In the early part of the 2000s, Internet usage was available but not [...]

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July 21, 2011

Women in North Africa

1. Women are commonly acknowledged to play key roles in the nations of North Africa. For example, Algerian women were involved in the war for independence from France (1954-1962). Most recently, they were deeply involved in the 2011 Tahrir Square protests that toppled Mubarak in Egypt.

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July 18, 2011

The coming population crash: an 50-year moment in North Africa

I have begun exploring North Africa today–this week will be spent on the region–and is typical for me, the first thing I do is dive into demographic statistics. Why? Simple: what’s happening today (e.g. Arab Spring, war in Libya, separation Sudan, etc.) is not what will be dominating the headlines in 2025. Let’s say you plant a church today. In five years, the issues that church will be facing will be different than what you’re facing today. So to get a glimpse of the future for strategic planning purposes, we have to get our heads out of the tabloids, twitter [...]

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July 18, 2011

Research guidance for North Africa: Fall 2011

Editor’s Note: The following is an internal document produced to provide high-level guidance to those who wish to contribute knowledge and wisdom to the mission world via JustinLong.org. This document is not an analysis or forecast, but rather a series of guidelines for understanding and evaluating current trends in the region, as well as suggestions on areas for focus. This post may be updated later with additional guidance. For this week we are exploring North Africa: 1. Demography: population change is a key driver in every region of the world, and the recent UN population projection updates revealed some startling [...]

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July 12, 2011

Sudan: what could possibly go wrong?

Stratfor: 75% of Sudan’s 500,000 daily barrels of oil comes from the South. The “seemingly clean” divorce between North and South masks the “messiness” underneath: most of the sticking points (oil, etc.) have not yet been resolved. The prospect for conflict and the possibilities of violence impacting the church in the future remains high. Update 7/12 10:58pm Additional Links: AllAfrica.com: Al-Bashir says Abyei dispute could lead to war

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July 8, 2011

The chronology of South Sudan’s journey to independence

The BBC has a great history of the trials and travails through which South Sudan passed to get where it is today. It’s worth a read and consideration of the dangers that await the South. It will be interesting to see how the church is a blessing to the South in the future.

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