Is there ever a time when a decline in church growth rates is acceptable? The answer is yes, and realizing this helps us to think through generational missionary strategy.
First, remember the difference between growth and the rate of growth. By growth we mean the number of people added to the church (e.g. “3,000 were added that day”). This is a specific number. By rate of growth, on the other hand, we refer to the increase in size per unit over time. This is more a measure of the “speed” of growth.
To use an analogy: let’s say you’re taking a trip from point A to point B. Every mile you drive or step you take represents “growth”–it is one more step along the way. However, you can increase or decrease your speed–your “rate of growth”–to get there faster.
The population of any segment is in constant flux and typically growing (although some populations are in decline). Churches grow based on four factors:
- Demographic growth, or births (minus deaths). New babies born into households that are already part of the church, and will hopefully grow up in the faith so that “when they are old they will not depart.”
- New Arrival growth, or immigrants (minus emigrants). This doesn’t impact the total of Christians globally, but it is definitely a factor in regional growth. For example, much of the growth that is happening in the church in North America or in Europe is new arrival growth–the arrival of immigrant Christians from other parts (e.g. Nigerians coming to Europe).
- Transfer growth, or people entering a congregation or denomination minus those leaving to go to a different church. Transfer growth springs out of competition and has its pluses and minuses. Competition seems a dirty word, but Rodney Stark discusses in The churching of America how competition between congregations and denominations has actually led to a greater degree of church participation, rather than less.
- Conversion growth, or converts + renewals minus defectors. This is the kind of growth which leads to an increase in Christianity and a decrease in the number of non-Christians.
It is important to keep an eye on all four of these factors when considering church growth. A church can be seeing significant demographic, new arrival and transfer growth–and yet be losing its influence in a given society because non-Christians are growing at a faster rate, and the church doesn’t have much in the way of conversion. Right now, for example, Christianity worldwide adds about 45 million new babies per year–but non-Christians add about 90 million per year.
With this understanding firmly in mind, let’s return to our original question. Is there a point at which the rate of church growth can be expected to decline? Yes, obviously: once the church becomes a substantial part of a particular population segment. I’m not honestly sure mathematically at what point it is, but when you look at any particular group you can see that the larger it gets, the slower it grows, until finally the population growth rate tends to hover around that of the population as a whole.
The reason is fairly simple. When a population forms a majority of a segment:
- The demographic growth rate of the population and its majority will be roughly equivalent, because you’re talking about the same people.
- New arrival growth will be a factor that can imbalance population growth either for or against the church, because the people coming in will either get pulled into the church or kept out.
- Transfer growth will be something of a “hidden” factor: impacting individual churches within the region, but inter-regional transfer growth will be hidden within immigration.
- Conversion growth will slow up because as the church gets toward the “edges” of a society, those who are most likely to convert will, and those who are most obstinate won’t. New conversions of non-Christians will become fewer in number, mostly found among immigrants. Spectacular reports of conversions won’t actually be “new conversions” but rather “revivals”–people who grew up Christian, slid away, and came back (possibly repeated several times).
Part of the problem with conversions as Christianity becomes a larger part of a society is that it becomes more and more difficult for a Christian to have a relationship with a non-Christian. In our relationships, we tend to like being friends with people who think like us, believe like us, and act like us. But due to the minimal number of “open relationship slots” that the typical person has (see this for a discussion of relational overload and its impact on evangelism), we tend to have very few interactions with the non-Christians around us. It is easier to be friends with people in our church, to do things with people in our church, or to be alone with our families. We are very insulated from the people in our neighborhood and often from the people in our jobs. In this situation, we must, like Jesus, be willing to leave the 99 sheep and go in search of the 1.
We need to accept that the end goal is “for all to hear” and for as many as possible to be discipled. Thus, we need to realize that there is a point where spectacular church growth will not be the norm–rather, we need to celebrate the day-in/day-out regularity of worship, community, character-building, sacraments, and so on. This is the task of being “merely Christian” each day. And, as the number of Christians grow, we will have to go out of our way and be intentional about reaching out to non-Christians, because it will be harder and harder to find them–much like the 1 lost sheep, we will have to leave the 99 and go in search.
Beyond a decline in the rate of church growth (e.g. church growth continues, but slows in speed), there is a more chilling scenario: a decline in growth itself.
Throughout the Western world (and even in parts of Africa and Asia) population rates are in significant decline. People are having fewer children. This will significantly impact the growth of the church:
- there will be fewer new babies.
- Migration will be a more significant factor, both in the society as a whole and in the church’s stance on it.
- Transfer growth will likewise be significant as successful churches attract members from less successful ones, and rancor sets in.
- Conversion growth will slow because people will be set in their ways and there will be fewer young people.
Patrick Johnstone has noted this in “The Future of the Global Church” and certainly it is a significant issue we need to think about, with its far-reaching implications toward 2050.
As populations decline and economic crises make immigration growth more and more an issue, we could indeed find ourselves in a time where the church declines, not just in rate of growth but in actual numbers. Already there are many denominations which are on the point of ceasing to exist simply because they have aged out and their doctrines or approach, for whatever reason, are not appealing to younger transfer growth or converts. If the church makes up 60 to 70% of a population that is in decline, there is not much help for it–especially if that church/population refuses transfer growth and isn’t involved in missions.
