The Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 were protests in China in favor of economic reform and liberalization in China. The movement lasted 7 weeks until 4 June, when tanks and troops moved in and used live fire to clear the area. Estimates of casualties range from hundreds to thousands. But nothing changed immediately after Tiananmen.
What has happened in the Arab Spring so far sorely reminds me of Tiananmen. Yes, Tunisia peacefully “revolted,” but it was the most liberalized population of North Africa anyway. Libya fell, after heart-wrenching weeks of civil war, but it had Western military support and it was indeed a small population over a few cities in the North African desert. Syria has yet to have any reprieve from violence, and it doesn’t look to me the odds are in favor of the protesters. Yemen looked as though it might break open, but in fact the agreement with Saleh changes little except for the fact that he doesn’t have the “title” of President and he can’t be prosecuted (he essentially exchanged his title for immunity, but lost none of his power). Egypt is probably most like Tiananmen: it has had several “mini-revolutions” and crackdowns, but so far the old guard remain in power, and it remains to be seen whether even the latest series of protests will do anything to change it.
In the wake of Tiananmen, many young people became very disillusioned with the government and the prospects for reform. Some came to the Gospel, and the church experienced a significant boom. Others went into business, and China experienced a significant economic boom. Slowly, over the twenty-plus years since Tiananmen, China has changed significantly. Today, its economy is more open, and in many parts of China the church has flourished greatly. Much remains to hope for, however.
I theorize there are probably a number of parallels between Tiananmen and Egypt, which we will see unfold in the future. Right now, I’m not looking for any dramatic overnight change in the region (although obviously Black Swans always surprise us).
What I am hoping: that any souring of political mood and hope in Egypt will at least increase the possibility of openness to the Gospel, and that as people draw closer to Christ, they will be transformed not only in heart but also in outward actions. It is the transformation of character in the individual that will transform Egypt. No political change for the better will happen without positive character.
