If anyone tells you he knows what will happen next in North Korea, he’s lying. With that said…
1. Kim Jong-Il died about 17 Dec.
News of his death was delayed for at least 48 hours, and was well prepared when it was released, suggesting that the government of North Korea remains firmly in charge and committed to the plan of succession.
Jong-Il assumed power in 1994 from Kim Il-Sung, his father, founder of the modern North Korea (1912-1994) (the country’s first and officially “eternal” president). During his rule in the 1990s, an estimated 1 million died during famines.
Under his leadership, the North pushed to develop nuclear weapons. They tested nuclear devices in the northeast in 2006 and in 2009. They have developed uranium and plutonium programs.
Suffered a stroke in 2010 and designated his son as his heir.
The reported cause was “physical and mental exhaustion” while on a train to give “field advice” to factories, farms and the military.
2. Succeeded by his youngest son, Kim Jong-un.
The transition is clearly in progress; it was likely anticipated and appears to be embraced by all the players.
However, Jong-Un has not had years to strengthen his power base. In spite of appearances, North Korea is not a sole dictatorship with one leader firmly in control. The Kims have maintained rule over the isolated country by achieving a balance between a variety of factions: revolutionary fighters, the military, the Worker’s Party, the Assembly, and various family and economic interests. Jong-Un has had no significant experience in managing this large and complex network.
U.S. Representative Peter King (Chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee) called North Korea an “organized crime ring posing as a government,” and there is certainly some truth in this analogy. The various factions, prepared for this transition, are focused on preserving and protecting their interests—but also, possibly, in strengthening their individual hands within the whole.
There is uncertainty about how much support Jong-Un has amongst the various factions. During the last decade there has been considerable competition and faction-building in support of each of Kim’s three sons, which intensified following Jong-Il’s stroke in 2008. For some time the eldest son was the favorite and the youngest son had little hope. However, the eldest was involved in an embarassing detention in Japan in 2001, and Jong-Il eventually chose Jong-Un, partly due to the fact that the military and his uncle backed him.
Some analysts fear he may feel it necessary to start a crisis to prove his mettle. Within the last few hours, North Korea has already test fired a missile off the eastern coast. North Korea remains technically at war with the South. Jong-un is said to have intelligence, leadership skills, and a ruthless streak.
Jong-Un’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek, has an important political and military post, and is seen as a kind of regent for the new ruler. He is seen as a balance against hardline generals pushing for the development of nuclear weapons. There may be some kind of “joint rule” possible.
This period also represents a generational change in the top level leadership of North Korea. The hardliners who were in their 70s and 80s have mostly ”faded away.”
This generational transition will probably be smooth in the short run, but could experience conflict in the long run.
3. Heightened alerts in the region
South Korea opted not to light its planned Christmas trees on the border, in order to prevent retaliations. It increased its military alert levels.
There are some 28,000 US troops in South Korea.
The North has an estimated army of 1 million, one of the world’s largest.
Because any thing that happens in the immediate period after Jong-Il’s death would be seen as an extension of his policies, nothing will likely change in the short-term future. A three year period of mourning is traditional, and likely Jong-Un will observe a similar period and use it to consolidate his power. There is even the possibility that Jong-Un will make some offer to reduce tensions and “buy time” from the West in order to shore up his internal domestic challenges.
In the long term, there is a possibility of a power struggle.
4. In the long run
Even with a good harvest, North Korea cannot feed its 25 million people. Economic reform is necessary. The country remains closed and isolated from the outside world. How much Jong-un would be able to change this, even if he desired it, is impossible at this moment to project.
The church in North Korea is heavily restricted and persecuted. Given what we know at present and absent any wildcard, the likelihood of this changing any time in the next five to ten years remains very low indeed.
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