I follow John Robb rather closely. His view of the immediate future is fairly dark, but I think moderately realistic. Whether the darkest things he forecasts will come to pass, I’m not sure. But, here’s something to think about.
John Robb on The Crisis Du Jour and You.
It’s very simple. It is almost a certainty that a global economic depression is on its way and there is absolutely nothing you or I can do to stop it (a ballot box solution now would be as effective as replacing the Captain of the Titanic after the ship hit the iceberg). So, what can you and I do? We can take control of our environment. Our objective is to build or buy access to a community that has the resilience to not only help us survive a global depression, but thrive during it. A resilient community that:
- Negates the impact of inevitable supply disruptions, rationing, and price spikes.
- Protects you from the political violence that will erupt (mobs and police states).
- Has a functional local economy that has the potential to network with other functional local economies.
What can a church or house of worship do? Consider a very early example of a church planting movement in the middle/aftermath of a total societal breakdown:
We begin in the 300s, during the setting days of the Roman Empire. In northeastern Europe, the expansion of the Ostrogoths provoked the Huns, who easily overran them and forced the tribes to scramble southwest into Roman lands. Pressures from these northern tribes, combined with Hun raids and internal weaknesses, eventually led to the disintegration of the Western Roman Empire in 476 AD.
At the same time, the Christian faith–which had endured persecution under Rome until its legalization in the late 300s and subsequent enshrinement as the faith of the Empire–was likewise dismembering itself along political and ethnic lines. By 480 AD, the once-united Church had broken into four parts: Rome and Byzantium (Chalcedonian), Persia (Nestorian), Africa (Monophysite), and north and west Europe (almost entirely Arian) (cf. Stearns 2001, Barrett 2001).
Early on, because of these growing pressures, Rome had withdrawn its legions from Britain. Given free reign and mostly ignored by Europe, Irish slavers regularly raided the Continent. Patrick was one of those captured. He later escaped but was supernaturally summoned back to minister in Ireland (Cahill 1995). In spite of local danger and outside ignorance and criticism he established the rapidly multiplying Celtic church, which over two centuries spread throughout all Ireland and into Scotland (C 2001).
By the 6th century some order was returning to the chaos of Europe. Justinian, emperor of the Byzantine (Eastern Roman) Empire, had reconquered much of the Western half’s losses, the Franks had solidified in Germany and the Avar Khanate was holding its own in Eastern Europe (Stearns 2001). Then in 535 AD, “something happened”: a catastrophe, although experts disagree on exactly what: a cometary bombardment or the eruption of Krakatoa (Keys 2000). The Earth was darkened just enough for a wave of coldness to bring famine; this in turn led to movement by rats infested by plague-carrying fleas. They migrated north and got into the grain ships, and were carried thus north from Africa to the Byzantine Empire. Once there, the plague jumped from the rats to humans, and spread rapidly: decimating Europe’s population by at least half from 540 to 570 AD.
This was a turning point for Europe (Rosen 2007). It was just after this catastrophe that Columbanus, the famous Irish missionary monk, migrated to the European continent. A near perfect combination of values and operating methods enabled the Celtic monks to adapt local resources and technologies for use. Their monasteries multiplied and transformed Europe, setting the stage for its modern ascendance.
Columbanus was born about 540 AD—roughly the same year the plagues began in Europe (Edmonds 1908). He sought a religious life first under Sinnell of Cluaninis, then later moved on to Bangor under Comgall. At the age of 40 (in 580 AD) he heard God’s voice calling him to preach the Gospel in foreign lands. Columbanus set sail with twelve companions and crossed into France in 585 AD, just as the plague was beginning to recede.
As Columbanus and his companions entered Gaul they discovered a devastated land. Europe’s population had been falling since the 4th century: demographic historians believe at least a quarter of Europe’s people had died. The area of Roman Gaul was worse off, having sunk from roughly 7.5 million to 4 million, a destruction not to be equaled until the Black Death—the return of bubonic plague a millennia later (Rosen 2007). In 590 AD, Pope Gregory wrote the Emperor Maurice in Byzantium to say, "All Europe is in the power of the barbarians or the heretics. The cities are overthrown, the provinces are depopulated, the soil has no longer hands to cultivate it." During the height of the plague years, Roman taxation coupled with the invasions of European tribes and Attila’s Huns had reduced entire regions to population deserts: there were six such regions in Burgundy alone. Towns and cities had been abandoned and overgrown with forests, from the Rhine down to Switzerland. Forests had grown over the sites of former towns and cities, especially in the region of the Rhine from Belgium down to Switzerland. Luxeuil, a monastery founded by Columbanus which became the center of the continental monastic movement until its destruction by Islamic invaders, was built on one such overgrown city. Roman bands of criminals, soldiers, and foresters occupied the land.
In the midst of this devastation, Columbanus’ monks began their transformative work. The Merovingian king Sigibert at Rheims sent Columbanus and his 12 disciples off into this wilderness of ruined towns, yet within a few years three monasteries had been established near the Vosges forest—Annegray (600 monks), Luxeiul (1,000 monks) and Fontaines (300 monks and 900 lay brothers and sisters). Among other things, they began plowing fields.
The heavy moldboard plow they used probably came from China, although its early history is a little vague. The plow was known to the Slavs in the fourth century. The Goths copied it from them, and used it in Transylvania. They brought it to Britain when they invaded the Isles in the fifth and sixth centuries. Either the Celts brought it back to Europe or knew it when they got there. It was a more effective plow and could improve farming efficiency quickly enough to cause a population increase, but because of its costs could only be operated in places rich enough to provide for it: dense population settlements and monasteries (White 1962).
As the Celts fanned out over this post-apocalyptic world, they began cutting into the forests (sources of idol worship) and plowing the fields. They gave food away, manufactured products, and began trading. Their efforts stabilized the lands and villages around their monasteries and sparked a boom in the local economies, which in turn led to enough safety and stability for families to feel they could have children. Populations rapidly increased and they became centers of protection against the chaos of the times.
From 590 onward, a new monastery was founded every year, and all became schools (the most important being Luxeuil). They recruited nobles as well as serfs and slaves to become monks or students. While the Merovingian kings promoted or slaughtered each other’s children, the youth of the Burgundians and Frankish kings (often with their parents) came to study at Luxeuil, most returning to secular life with a respect for their teachers. After Columbanus and his Irish comrades were deported by King Theuderic, one of the trained Burgundian nobles (Walbert) took over as Abbot of Luxeuil for four decades. All the while monks from Ireland continued to pour into Gaul, and Walbert sent out missionary deployments of monks daily, many for long distances (Gallagher 1995, cf. Jonas).
Pope Pius XI, while a bishop doing research at Milan’s Ambrosiano library, wrote, "the Renaissance of all Christian science and culture in France, Germany and Italy is due to the labors and zeal of Columbanus and his followers and successors." The efforts of the Celts, copied by others, led to a massive population explosion (Rosen 2007:263). By the end of the 7th century, the population of the Rhineland was four times that of the Roman Empire (White 1962:54). The centuries-long population boom took place among a people “who paid spiritual homage to Rome but owned fealty to a usually Frankish [Germanic] king, and political power inevitably flowed north from the Mediterranean” (Rosen 2007:265). As the population grew, unoccupied wilderness was cleared and cultivated by new settlements. Germany in particular tripled in size and grew to dominate Europe, setting the stage for the Reformation.
– Justin Long, “Templates of a Movement”
For an idea of how this might happen today, consider this talk by Rick Warren, esp. toward the latter end, and the impact of the church in Rwanda.
