Eastern Europe’s population is suffering a massive decline. From 220 million in 1950, it rose to its peak of 304 million in 2000. Researchers estimate it will fall to 284 million by 2025, 256 million by 2050, and down to 221 million by 2100.
Much of this decline is not due to a decrease in birth rate–in fact, the birth rate is presently increasing: from 1.3 children per family in 2000 to 1.7 in 2025, and likely to 2.0 by 2100. Rather, the decline is caused by a spiking death rate: from 14.4 deaths per thousand in 2000 to 15.2 in 2050. This death rate is higher than the birth rate, and likely will not be balanced out even by 2100.
Part of the reason for the high death rate was the low birth rate (and the related aging of the population) from 1950 to 2000: by 2000, over 6% of the population was over 65; by 2050, over 20% of the population will be.
The combination of the growing birth rate and the high death rate means a massive generational change is happening in Eastern Europe. A new generation is rising while the old guard is quite literally dying off. As a result, we can look for some changes in culture, politics and religious outlook.
