Much ado has been made in the press about the 7 billionth person born. Really, if we want to get mathematically picky, it’s not the “7 billionth” person–we crossed that line long ago. It’s just that now the total enduring population on our world has crossed the line of 7 billion: we now have consistently more than 7 billion on our planet.
We all know population is increasing. I’ve hammered this point many times over. However: here’s a significant illustration. In 1950, we had just over 2 billion people. It took us 25 years to double to over 4 billion in 1975. In another 25 years we added yet another 2 billion, crossing the 6 billion line by 2000. Between 2000 and 2011 we added another billion–hitting 7 billion. In 15 years–by 2025–we will hit 8 billion.
Right now, if you’re following this pattern, we’re adding another 2 billion every 25 years. We’ve been doing that pretty consistently for a while now, but according to UN demographic projections this won’t continue. Population growth peaked in the 1990s at about 83 million per year. We’ve since seen declines in population growth. We’re now down to 77 million per year, and by 2025 we’ll fall to +63 million per year (and +33 million per year by 2050).
This pattern is true across the board. There are population declines in East Asia, North Africa, etc. (There are holdouts: East Africa, for example, is growing rapidly).
With this demographic trend comes a different set of challenges. The world is aging. The “dependency ratio”–the number of elderly per worker–is rising in a number of countries. Japan is one example for the future.
It could be that the 4/14 Window will be increasingly less important for the future of Asian religions, Muslims and Hindus–and the 65/85 Window will be increasingly more important.
What are you reading about demography, resources, and life in a world with 8 billion people? And think about the cultural perspectives around you: are children a problem to be solved, a resource to be developed, a soul to be saved, a treasure to be savored, or something else entirely?
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