Bill Hutchison is right in his comment: once “Turkey’s powerful army could simply make plain its refusal to tolerate a person or a policy and the government would fall. The resignations at the top military level will probably change that forever.”
Some think the victory of civilians over the military will increase democracy in Turkey (see embracing constitution” and concerned with the rights of Kurds.
I am less optimistic. Bill’s concern: the military stood for a secular Turkey. Erdogan’s government is rooted in Islam. With the military out of the way, what is the check on the Islamist nature? And a YWAMer is not the only one concerned: so is Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and others. What will Erdogan do with his growing power?
This is the same narrative Egypt is debating, although Turkey is further along in the story. Egypt’s Supreme Military Council may be autocratic but at least it’s a check on Islamization. Many would love to see the Council gone (seems unlikely) but if it were, the next most organized and most powerful force would be the Islamists. The Muslim Brotherhood wears a nice face–now–but the Salafists definitely don’t, and in the shadows of the night I think the MB would do little to check them. Lose the Council, and the Church will likely suffer (more than it already is).
In both countries, watch what happens with the constitution drafting to see where the story heads next.
Additional Reading
- Stephen Kinzer, “A new direction for Turkey’s democracy,” The New York Review Blog. Lots of potential for freedom in curtailing the military, but Erdogan may be getting too powerful.
- Alan Greenblatt, “Turkey undergoes a ‘silent revolution,’” NPR. As Turkey appears to move toward a mainstream Western model of democracy, the scaling back of the military power means there are no real checks on the ruling AK Party. With authority over the judiciary, the AKP has jailed its critics by the dozens: admirals, generals, journalists and people working for civil society organizations.
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