Just a few weeks ago, WIRED’s Danger Room notes dryly, many observers thought the campaign in Libya was going nowhere. I will freely admit to being one of those who thought the likelihood of a long, drawn-out battle and the effective partitioning of Libya was the most likely scenario. Even when they captured Zawiya, my early thought was that capturing Tripoli would take days but then revised my opinion based on analysis elsewhere to think that it would take weeks. In retrospect, I seriously should have gone with my gut call. Next time I’ll be bolder (and I thought I was being bold!).
Part of the problem: many seriously underestimated how much of a force multiplier reconnaissance and air power can be. US recon drones, missiles, airstrikes (nearly 20,000 of them) helped pave the way for the admittedly underarmed and undertrained rebels. There is a lesson in this: technology may be perilous and is not the silver bullet (as Twitter and the Iranian Green Revolution showed), but the right tech (and, in conflict, weapons) at the right time can certainly bring about ‘superempowerment.’
So, what happened? This post will contain an updated chronology of what happened in Libya from start to finish, as I compile it from various sources. For my particular readership, what is happening now or even in the next few days is probably less instructive than how this came about and where it might lead in the next 6 months, year, and five years. And certainly, Libya’s future is fraught both with peril and opportunity.
23 Aug. Although the TNC said several of Gadafhi’s sons were arrested, it developed today that Saif al-Islam was never arrested and was in fact at large in Tripoli marshalling forces to attack, and Mohammed had escaped custody. There was still quite a bit of Tripoli under the control of those loyal to Gadhafi.
22 Aug. Libyan Rebels Enter Tripoli, Arrest Gadhafi Son. Presidential guard surrenders.
Rebel fighters enter Tripoli, where widespread clashes erupted for a second day between rebel “sleeper cells” and pro-regime loyalists. State television aired an audio message from Gadhafi urging families to fight for the capitol. Numerous clashes in neighborhoods throughout the city and over the Mitiga military airport. Snipers on rooftops.
21 Aug.
__Dawn. Fighters set out from a village east of Zawiyah and rush toward Tripoli.
__Midday. Rebels captured the 32nd Brigade base, 16 miles west of Tripoli, where they looted munitions and tanks and freed prisoners who had been beaten and tortured.
__Nightfall. Rebels reached Janzour, a suburb of Tripoli. Civilians welcomed them.
23:00 Gadhafi’s eldest son surrenders.
20 Aug. Rebels claimed full control of Zawiyah (pop. 200,000 and the last functioning oil refinery). Doing so cuts Gadhafi off from fuel and the primary resupply route from Tunisia. They launch their first attack on Tripoli: gunbattles, mortar strikes, and NATO air strikes. Tunisia changed its position of neutrality and recognized the rebels.
15 Aug. The endgame drew nigh when the rebels took Gharyan, 80 kilometers south of Tripoli. The attack began on 13 August; by the next day the rebels were in control of some three-quarters of the city. By 15 August control was complete. By 18 August loyalists had retreated from Gharyan. The victory meant that Tripoli was effectively encircled: all highways went through rebel-controlled chokepoints. It also gave the rebels access to Libyan Army supplies at the military base of Mizdah.
Aug. Thousands of rebel fighters (including many fleeing Gadhafi-held cities) join an offensive launched from the Nafusa mountains toward the coast. After the beginning of Ramadan, rebels seized Tiji and Bir al-Ghanam.
28 July. Further opposition gains in the east are slow. In the west, the gains made enabled the rebels to begin pushing out of the Nafusa mountains into the foothill towns.
July. Battle for Qawalish bogged down the advance.
June. In the west, numerous scattered gains as opposition forces seized villages and supplies, cutting off Gadhafi’s logistical support for government troops in the region.
15 May. After a siege lasting several months, in which hundreds of civilians and rebels were wounded and killed, government forces withdraw from the seaside city of Misrata. The battle for Misrata is over.
11 May. Fierce fighting leaves opposition forces in control of the airport at Misrata.
25 April. Opposition forces begin a counter-offensive into the area around Misrata, seizing the port and then working their way to reclaim the city.
April. The battle of Misrata. In late April, NATO jets begin bombing the city, targeting pro-regime tanks and artillery.
19 Mar. The beginning of the NATO air campaign. French jets began bombing within hours of the UN resolution. That night, US B-2 and B-1B bombers strike 150 targets in Libya. Although the bombing campaign had its problems, it halted Gadhafi’s advance.
10 Mar. Gadhafi had bombed Brega and retaken Zawiyah and Bin Jawad, making Libyans there reluctant to join the opposition. Rebel losses led to persuasion for the no-fly zone.
5 Mar. Rebels seize Bin Jawad. Fighting in Zawiyah (tanks vs. houses). Rebel national council ready to hold first ession. 191,000 have fled the violence.
4 Mar. Rebels retake Zawiyah. Clashes in Misrata. Anti-G protestors clash with police in Tripoli. Pro-regime forces at border restrict displaced from fleeing.
3 Mar. Gadhafi airstrikes on oil port Brega. ICC says Gadhafi will be probed over allegations of crimes against humanity. Libya’s oil output has fallen by half. International airlift of refugees.
2 Mar. Gadhafi counter-offensive in “the east.”
1 Mar. Rebels control eastern Libya, many towns in the West. Tripoli under Gadhafi control. Opposition military council established.
1 Mar. Garyan (west, near border of Tunisia) overrun in the night by loyalist forces.
28 Feb. EU imposes sanctions on Gadhafi, others.
27 Feb. UN Refugee agency reports an international emergency as thousands of Egyptian and Tunisian migrant workers seek to flee Libya.
25 Feb. Gadhafi promises to arm his supporters.
22 Feb. Gadhafi television addres orders his forces to crush the uprising.
21 Feb. Libya diplomats worldwide leave the regime. The justice minister resigns. Air force pilots defect. The main government hall is on fire. Protesters claim control of Benghazi after army units side with them.
20 Feb. Protests spread in Tripoli. 60 killed. Saif al-Islam, son of Gadhafi, promises they will fight to the end. Protesters ransack state television headquarters in Tripoli. Opposition forces take control of Benghazi after the fall of the well-stocked military arsenal Katiba. A suicide car bomber blew a hole in the side of the garrison, allowing fighters inside. In the east, the cities of Baida and Tobruk are also in the hands of the opposition. In Benghazi, over 300 were killed in the fighting.
19 Feb. Pro-regime forces fire on mourners leaving a funeral for protesters, killing 15 in Benghazi. Government special forces attack demonstrators in front of a courthouse in Benghazi. Internet access is cut off.
18 Feb. Security forces begin clamp down. 35 killed in Benghazi as protesters march on Gadhafi residence.
17 Feb. Calls on Facebook for “Day of Rage” against Gadhafi’s regime. Protesters defy crackdown and take to the streets in five cities. Twenty are killed in clashes with pro-Gadhafi groups. Internet services are disrupted.
15-16 Feb. Arrest of a human rights campaigner sparks violent protests in Benghazi. The protests spread. The security headquarters and police stations in two cities are set on fire. Gadhafi proposes to double the salaries of government employees and release 110 alleged Islamic militants.
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