A meditation on economic growth

August 21, 2011

The world, and especially various individual countries in it, are in an economic mess. I have been meditating on this economic situation recently (honestly, on our own small part of it), and while I have come to new solutions or conclusions, I have had some thoughts to share with us–especially for how precisely the economic mess can be defined and thought of (for those of us who are not trained economists). Mostly, I’ve been thinking a lot about this because I was going through a lot of articles while taking three plane rides and during breaks between some mentally and emotionally intense meetings–I’ve had a lot of downtime to think and ponder, but not enough (until now) to write long form articles.

Economic growth, analysts tell us, is down. But what, precisely, does that mean? It sounds ominous. It sounds plain bad. Perhaps even apocalyptic: nation-shattering, or at the very least nation-changing.

Economic Growth is just that–the growth of an economy. It is generally measured as the increase of per capita (economic speak for “per person”) gross domestic product (that is, the value of what goods and services). It is a general measurement of the increase in people’s total income in any given year.

Let’s say, for example, you are a hawker selling meat buns on at a roadside stall. In a given day, you might earn the equivalent of US$5. If last year you earned about US$1500, and this year you earned US$2000, that is economic growth. Simple enough, right?

Now, economic growth in any population segment (a city, a state or province, or country, or region, or even the whole world) means that the aggregate of everyone’s revenues (not expenses, mind) increases over a period of time. That doesn’t necessarily mean it increases for everyone, but let’s skip that complexity for the moment.

It’s easy to see how an individual person’s economic growth can increase. You can sell more of your goods, change your job, lower your costs. But how does economic growth happen across an entire segment?

  • Reduce costs. One way, sort of, is for per-person productivity to increase. Costs go down. You can afford to pay your workers more. This isn’t precisely economic growth, per se, for the company–they aren’t experiencing any additional revenue–but it would be for the workers, and so that could lead to economic growth.
  • Sell More Stuff 1: through advertising or whatever, increase your market share by selling more stuff to your existing market. This only works until you have market penetration.
  • Sell More Stuff 2: Sell the same stuff to new people. Another way is to sell more stuff to more people by entering new markets. Car company _X_ might sell cars only in their area, but then they start selling cars in another area (e.g. another country). Their market has grown, they are selling more cars, so their economic growth goes up. This works if you have something another market wants.
  • Sell More Stuff 3: Sell New Stuff. Another way is to invent something new that everyone wants (like an iPad). This means selling new stuff to the same people.
All of this implies selling stuff to people. You have to have sales for an economy to function and to grow.  But 99% of what is sold, people don’t need. They might want it, but they don’t need it. In a recession or depression–or any economic downturn–people stop buying what they don’t need. This, of course, leads to a downturn in which marginal businesses go bust and big businesses start laying people off–which starts a downward cycle.
The only way out of that cycle is to stimulate spending–to get people buying again. Buying more stuff. Or buying from others.
Even when we are not in a recession/depression, economic growth in a segment only occurs in one of two ways: (1) population growth (new people to buy all the stuff that others have bought before them–like houses, cars, refrigerators, computers, iPods, etc), (2) constantly repurchaseable items (e.g. perishable/reused items like groceries, experience based items like movies/games/entertainment, or service items like haircuts), (3) making a new item that everyone must have.
But: how do you have economic growth when there is no economy? For the church: what happens when you have a segment of absolute poverty? How do you help them to start building an economy, when they don’t have anything that anyone wants (resources), don’t have the skills to make things anyone wants, don’t have capital, etc?
When thinking about absolute poverty we have to begin at the very essentials – for example, how do you help them get Dave Ramsey’s “Four Walls” (shelter, clothing, food, transportation)? Yet in this, we must move out of the idea that “people don’t have because they are lazy” and move into the area of social justice, seeking aid-that-works, development issues, etc. It’s very difficult. I don’t have the answers. Lots of people argue over the answers that are provided.
People in the Horn of Africa are starving. People in West Africa are on the verge of starvation. Millions live trapped in absolute poverty. And it is not because they are lazy.
I hope we can spend a little time reflecting on the idea that how we help people who have massive credit card debt and bad spending habits is massively different (methods, motivations, ideas, attitudes, etc) than how we help people who are in absolute poverty, lacking skills, assets, or markets.
I believe this is a Gospel issue. The absolute poor are often the most preyed-upon, oppressed, trafficked, sick, widowed, orphaned, etc. Because they don’t know the dangers of an offer from somewhere in the globalized world. Because they don’t have skills. Because they are often desperate to survive. Because we as the church are to stand up on their behalf: that part of the Gospel is feeding the hungry, healing the sick, clothing the naked, visiting those in jail, etc.

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