In this post we cover some of the pivotal events of the month which impact the task of missions. For each region we will provide a brief summation as well as some scenarios or forecasts for the short-term future of these regions. The scenarios are typically numbered A to D, with A and B “most probable” and C and D being “less probable” or “least probable”. In some instances there is only a Scenario A as nothing else seems remotely probable at the moment.
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Africa
North Africa.
Libya. Much talk, but no immediate end to the civil war is in sight. France’s Foreign Minister thought Gadhafi could stay in the country if he relinquished power. Gadhafi insisted he would neither step down nor flee. NATO airstrikes and Libyan rebels appear to be stalemated against Gadhafi’s troops. Everyone’s looking for an exit strategy that saves face.
- Scenario A: Tragedy. Eventually the West exits, the rebels flee across borders, Gadhafi overruns and reasserts control over what remains. Everyone pontificates about how bad it is. The church suffers.
- Scenario B: Partition. The country could effectively partition itself between the Gadhafi- and rebel-controlled zones. The only way for this to work is if the boundaries are effectively enforced by NATO and the rebels. If NATO exits, Gadhafi will overrun.
- Scenario C: Gadhafi Exit. This seems highly unlikely in the short-term future, but more probable with time. Despite his protestations it seems Gadhafi is willing to exit–if the price and conditions are right. As long as his army is succeeding in holding off the rebels and the West, the price will remain high.
- Scenario D: NATO+Rebel Victory. This would doubtless involve the arrest or killing of Gadhafi. This is the highly-unlikely scenario for the near future, since right now the war is at a stalemate and has been there for some time.
Egypt. The military council is playing the factions against each other. Instead of a “Day of Unity,” the 29 July protest turned out to be a forceful demonstration of the power of the Islamist groups, which had the end result of shattering the united front between the Islamists and the secularists. Having separated the power of the two, and with the largest faction–the Muslim Brotherhood–siding with the government on all important issues, the military will remain firmly in control.
- Scenario A: the military and Islamists will keep control through the elections. Without external monitors the elections could very well be “massaged” to yield the desired result. The constitution written thereafter will favor the military and the Islamists.
- Wildcard: Protests could turn ugly, as they did Friday night, and blow up.
- Wildcard: The results of the panel’s recommendations about the military’s future role in politics.
- Scenario A: six months is a short time in which to call anything faltering. Tunisia will probably continue its tradition of freedom in the context of Islam. But there will be a lot of political posturing and perhaps a few instances where either the government or the opposition goes to far and some heads get cracked.
- Scenario A: the North and South will muddle through without significant conflict between them. However, the North will take the opportunity (already is) to pound on the Nuba Mountains region. Western powers are far more concerned with Libya, Egypt and Somalia; Sudan, now that it is split and there is a bit of peace between North and South, will not be intervened in. This bodes very poorly for the church in Sudan, which is mostly in the Nuba Mountains.
- Scenario B: a renewal of conflict over unresolved arguments, with the probable intervention of a peacekeeping force.
East Africa.
The Horn of Africa drought. The United Nations declared parts of Somalia in famine, a technically-defined term, but Al Shabaab said the UN was wrong and that it would not allow additional aid groups into the region. Refugees continued to pour over the border into camps in neighboring nations, which are crowded. Neighboring nations are being strained by the influx. The death rate of children from hunger is high on East Africa’s “Roads of Death.”
- Scenario A: much of Somalia will be shut down to foreigners. Entry will continue to be very dangerous. The refugee camps will host a huge number of Somalis, who could be blessed by the church and the region in general.
West Africa
The stability of southwest Africa is breaking down. Numerous protests were igniting across smaller Western African nations. An assassination attempt was avoided in Guinea. Over 15,000 rallied in the streets of the capital of Guinea-Bissau demanding the resignation of the Prime Minister. Piracy is on the rise off the Gulf of Guinea, though not to the same level as off the coast of Somalia.
Nigeria. The government reacted violently to increasing attacks by the Islamic fundamentalist group Boko Haram in the North. The economy was struck by labor protests and oil industry workers threatening to strike. Any halt in the export of Nigerian crude would severely damage Nigeria’s economy. Further, oil supplies worldwide are already stretched and the loss of Nigerian crude from the market would cause prices to rise significantly.
- Scenario A: We will see an increasing amount of Muslim-Christian violence in Nigeria, especially after the religious overtones in Cote d’Ivoire’s election this year. Isolated church burnings, attacks and martyrdoms are likely.
Asia
West Asia.
Syria. The security forces and military continue to crack down on protests, and protests continue unabated. The opposition claims the government is trying to stir up sectarian strife to stop the mass movement to democracy. Impact on the church: is unclear. The Christians in the area have long been semi-protected under Assad’s government. Some of the Christians seem to be throwing in their lot with the protestors, but others are sitting it out.
- Scenario A (Most Probable): Right now I think Assad hanging on is the “most probable” result. The military and security apparatus are firmly on his side. Western powers can do little other than wring their hands and make pronouncements. The protestors are not powerful enough to overthrow him.
- Scenario B (Less Probable): At the same time, the overthrow of Assad, while less probable, is by no means an impossibility. Let’s call this a 60/40 split.
Yemen. The nation is in a state of virtual anarchy, with different regions held by different local authorities. A “shadow” government has formed, seeking unified leadership, but so far seemingly without success Pres. Saleh, still in Saudi Arabia, still insists he will not step down. The conflict is leading to significant hardship in the general population, including spikes in the prices of food and fuel.
- Scenario A (Most Probable): Saleh will not return to Yemen. There is a 60-day window in Yemen’s laws: if he does not function as President for two months he must hand off his powers. Saudi Arabia will “run out the clock” and the situation will resolve. yet, once the powers are handed off, the country will go through a period of extreme chaos as it sorts out its governing future.
- Scenario B (Less Probable): Saleh will manage to return and the country will descend further into chaos, anarchy and civil war.
South-central Asia.
Turkmenistan. A new report indicates the continued hardening against religious freedom.
Iran. There is an ongoing battle within the elite power establishment of Iran between Pres. Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei. This is leading to fissures in the various coalitions which could strengthen the military over the clerics. In the long-run, it is possible that once the 73-year-old Khamenei dies, the next leader may have to rely even more on the military to maintain power. The future of this is unclear but bears watching. Iran is the force for power within the Middle East, having the strongest military presence in the region, especially as the US pulls out.
- Scenario A: Ahmadinejad will remain in power.
- Scenario B: Ahmadinejad will be forced out. (I think: very low probability.)
East Asia.
North Korea. The food shortage in North Korea is the worst in years. North Korea is now trying to restart international negotiations, and the US is talking, but carefully, demanding evidence the North is serious. The future of the church within North Korea appears bleak despite the occasional startlingly positive report.
- Scenario A: The 100 Year Winter. Although there is insufficient information to really be able to judge probabilities, on the face of it the seemingly most probable scenario is the continuation of business as usual for the time being.
- Scenario B: Sudden Spring. There is insufficient information for us to be able to judge how probable the abrupt fall-and-reunification of the two Koreas is. Such an event would certainly be perilous in the short run, yet bode infinitely well both for the church and for the general freedom and economy of the region.
- Scenario A (most probable): The Slow Boil. Most Three Self Churches (as well as underground churches that keep their nose clean) will continue to function as they always have. The more public and well-connected the church, the more a crackdown is inevitable. In this environment, the rapid multiplication of small house churches in geographically-disperse networks will be more viable than centralized, very-public, large, wealthy, congregations.
- Scenario B: Major Frost. Much less probable: a sudden crackdown on all churches (or a significant majority of them) by the Chinese government. I rank this as unlikely simply because there are too many crypto-Christians within the areas of power in China (government, but also particularly business).
- Scenario B: Blooming Summer. The other less probable scenario is a cessation of persecution and the sudden “opening” of China. This is highly unlikely because all of those in power have a vested interest in remaining in power, which is not religious.
Japan. The church in Japan represents a miniscule percentage of the population–but still numbers about 2%. It would seem that Japan should be ripe for a Christ-ward movement, especially after the dramatic events earlier this year. So far such a movement has not been seen. What can be done?
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What are your thoughts on Turkey?
Traditionally Modern Day Turkey has been a secular society, however the current President is an Islamist and is in the process of “reforming” the nation. Historically when a leader took steps like this the military would stage a coup and return the country to a secular based government. This hasn’t happened this time and instead the military leaders are resigning or being arrested. I have heard predictions that the nation will move towards an Islamic Republic within 4 – 6 years.
This is a very good question. Technically turkey is in the west Asia sphere and at the moment I have been following it only lightly. However the specific data point you have highlighted is corrected: the resignation of the generals strengthens Er.’s party. What they will do with it must be watched, and it would be useful to analyze it.
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