Global Migration Trends: Fall 2011

We’ve written quite a bit recently about migration trends, and now would be a good time to step back and take a global and region-by-region look at the force of immigration. The UN releases regular information on migrants both on CDROM, in publications, and in its web-based databases. This gives us quite a bit of insight into the movements of migrants over time.

Global and Regional Numbers

a) Globally: From 155 million in 1990, the number of migrants has steadily increased to 213 million today. Over this 20 year period, the number of refugees has actually declined: from 18.4 million in 1990 (over 10%) to an estimated 16.3 million now. Women make up about half of the total: typically about half, from 76.3 million in 1990 to 104.7 million today. The speed at which the migratory population is growing is increasing: the number of migrants grew at 1.3% p.a. in 1990, and it is growing at 1.8% today.

b) Regional Totals (includes from countries outside region into region as well as between countries within the region; e.g. Guinea-Bissau to Nigeria would be in Africa as well as UK to Nigeria):

• Africa. From 15.9 million in 1990, rose to 19.2 million today. Refugees: from 5.3 million in 1990, fell to 2.5 million today. (Likely in 2011 this refugee number will spike temporarily.) Women: from 7.3 million in 1990, rose to 9.0 million today (women make up a smaller percentage of migrants in Africa.) The rate of change has slowed from 2.3% in 1990 to 0.8% in 2000, but rose again to 1.7% today. Nearly two-thirds of this migration is internal to Africa (Africans moving from one country to another), and much of that is either work-related or refugee movements. A very small portion of migrants head to other regions: and of those, about two-thirds head to Europe, a third to Asia, with a small minority going to the Americas. Migration is highest in the northern regions of Africa.
• Asia. From 50.8 million in 1990, rose to 61.3 million today. Refugees: from 9.9 million in 1990 to 10.8 million today. Women: from 23 million in 1990 to 27.3 million today. The rate of change has risen dramatically from –0.8% in 1990 to 2.1% today. About half of Asia’s migration is internal: but this can involve movements as far as from the Philippines and Korea to the Emirates and Iraq. The remaining half goes largely to Europe, about half as much to North America, and a small but increasing amount to Africa and Latin America. The motivations and abilities of these migrants varies vastly: some are political refugees, others are low-wage workers, and still others students or the supremely rich.
• Europe. From 49.4 million in 1990 to 69.8 million today. Refugees: from 1.3 million in 1990 to 1.5 million today, a very small change despite the headlines. Most refugees come in lots of a few dozen or a few thousand, not in the hundreds of thousands that would be required to make a significant difference. Women: from 26 million in 1990 to 36.5 million today. The rate of change has slowed from 2% p.a. in 1990 to 1.6% today. About three-quarters of this migration is internal to Europe, and the balance is split between North America and Asia. Very small amounts head to Latin America and Africa.
• Latin America. From 7.1 million in 1990 to 7.4 million today. Refugees: from 1.1 million in 1990, the number fell to half a million today. Women: from 3.5 million in 1990 to 3.7 million today. The rate of change has risen from –2.7% in 1990 to 1.7% today. Although there is a significant amount of traffic moving from Latin America to North America, there is also a substantial minority of migration internal to Latin America as people from less-developed nations within the region jostle into more-developed areas.
• North America. From 27.7 million in 1990 to 50 million today. Refugees: from half a million in 1990 to 700,000 today, a surprisingly small change. Women: from 14.1 million in 1990 to 25 million today, hovering steady at 50%. Rate of change has slowed: from 3.8% in 1990 to 1.9% today. There is really very little emigration from North America to other regions, and only a little internal migration. North Americans, by and large, tend to stay put.
• Oceania. From 4.3 million in 1990 to 6 million today. Refugees: from 0.1 million in 1990, fell to 59,000 today. Women: from 2.1 million in 1990 to 3 million today. Rate of change: remained pretty much the same, from 1.6% in 1990 to 1.7% today.

c) Top Countries:

• Top five countries with the most immigrants, 2010: USA 42.8 million, Russia 12.3 million, Germany 10.8 million, Saudi Arabia 7.3 million, Canada 7.2 million.
• Top five countries with highest percentage of migrants: Qatar 87%; UAE 70%; Kuwait 69%; Jordan 46%; Palestine 44%.
• Region with the highest immigration % Female: Europe. Region with the lowest immigration % female: Asia.
• Most dramatic changes over the past twenty years: in 1990, India and Pakistan were both in the top five list. By 2005, they had fallen to positions 8 and 12, respectively.

d) Summary Findings:

• The number of migrants is growing and will continue to grow.
• The number of refugees is declining, with occasional spikes.
• Women make up about half of all migrants globally, but this number varies widely by region.
• The rate of migration to countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America is increasing.
• The rate of migration to Europe and North America is slowing.
• Ministry to migrants means, in most cases, reaching people who are the cream of the crop from their home nations—those with the most intellectual financial resources, or the determination and resourcefulness to get to another country. In this globally connected age many will have continued connections back home.

 

Global Trends

1. Of those who move, 60% move to a developed nation, and 40% to a developing nation.

2. However: most of those who move to a developed country, come from a developed country.

a) The largest kind of migration worldwide is internal to countries: there are about 740 million internal migrants, nearly four times as many as those who move between countries.

b) The second largest kind of migration occurs between countries within regions than between countries in different regions. For example, Africa has roughly twice as much intra-regional migration as inter-regional migration (to Europe and Asia, predominantly). In this respect, Asia’s 35 million internal migrants is the largest such movement in the world (which makes sense, given that Asia is home to most of the world’s population).

c) The third largest kind of migration is between countries of similar economic development. The fact is, most of those who move between countries do not move from developing to developed countries. To do so is very difficult. Of the world’s 200 million international migrants, fewer than a third—about 70 million—made a developing-to-developed move. The remaining 130 million either moved from-developing-to-developing or from-developed-to-developed. (See the 2011 Human Development Report.)

Obviously, most people who migrate desire to move, usually of their own free will, and nearly always to a better place (very few indeed want to go to a place worse off than the one they are in). Thus, over 70% of international human movement is to a place with a higher level of human development than their home country. At the same time there are significant barriers to entry that require resources to overcome. Although we hear a lot about poor impoverished boat people heading to some place else (e.g. Africans to Europe), in fact very few do so. More Europeans move to America than Africans move to Europe, and twice as many Asians move to Europe as do Africans. By far the biggest migrations of people are Latin Americans to North America, Asians to Europe, Asians to North America, and Europeans to North America.

The result: if you meet a migrant in a developed area, they either have [a] resources (e.g. money or relational connections), [b] intellectual capital (perhaps they are a student on a scholarship), [c] incredible determination,  [d] the will to work under less than advantageous circumstances (sometimes tantamount to virtual slavery) for their own reasons, or [e] they are seeking asylum or are refugees. If you are working with migrants in a more open, developed area, the probability is that any migrant you meet will be in categories [a] to [c] above. Thus they are more likely to be secularized and entrepreneurial than to be staunchly religious.

• “A dangerous Saudi affair,” DAWN.com, Ahmad Ali Khalid: On the relative improvement for the Pakistani laborer who successfully goes to Saudi Arabia–but also the dangers.

3. There are many motives for migration. Among the most common:

a) Study: students nearly doubled from 1.6 million in 1999 to 2.8 million in 2008, mostly in the developing world. Those studying abroad have taken the first step to permanently residing abroad.

b) Work: labor migration is the most common cause among people from developing countries. Some of this is semi-permanent and others are seasonal.

c) Marriage: Since many young people are mobile, moving for study or work programs, the numbers of international and intercultural marriage are rising. This trend is also compounded by the growing number of people seeking spouses from abroad due in part to gender imbalances at home (especially in Asia). Spouses are a sizable portion of the migrants: in France, nearly half of all long-term immigrants were spouses, and in the United States they were a quarter.

• “Men of South Korea look for brides from abroad,” Christian Science Monitor, July 6, 2011: “Government figures show the number of Koreans marrying foreign spouses increased from 4,710 in 1990 to 33,300 in 2009, and the numbers are expected to continue rising.”
• “Crackdown on family visas will mean a longer wait for settlement,” The Telegraphy, July 27, 2011: “Foreign brides and grooms will have to wait five years before gaining full access to benefits under plans to be unveiled by the Government today.”

d) Humanitarian issues: in some regions, refugees, asylum-seekers and those in need of protection make up a substantial portion of the numbers of migrants. However, the number of refugees has been declining overall worldwide since 1990 (in spite of a few short-term, isolated cases). Note that migration numbers do not include internal displacement, which reached 27.5 million in 2010.

• “Life in a refugee camp,” Ottawa Citizen.

e) Retirement: some with greater resources even decide to retire to another country, taking their resources with them.

4. Most governments welcome immigrants.

a) The risk is mostly minimal and the potential rewards are high. Successful migrants typically bring with them significant intellectual or financial assets, or the will to work. They typically come from a country similar in development to the host country. They are motivated by relational or economic incentives and are unlikely to want to do anything to sabotage their opportunities in their new place of residence.

b) The number of governments seeking to restrict immigration in is declining, not increasing. In 1996, 40% of UN members were taking action to restrict migrant flows. By 2005, this number had fallen to 20%. At the same time, the percentage of nations that wished to simply maintain their current numbers had risen from 25% to 50%, and the portion that wanted to raise their levels remained constant at about 5%. The “newly-welcoming” trend among governments is most emphasized among developed nations whose population is stagnating and whose dependency ratios (workers per non-workers) is rising dramatically as the population ages.

c) The number of governments seeking to restrict emigration out is neither increasing nor decreasing. About 25% of governments report they want to lower emigration—a percentage that has been stable since 1986. The number of governments wanting immigrants to come to them is rising, but the number of governments wanting to see their nations leaving is not.

• “Chinese to be taught in all Swedish schools,” China Digital Times, July 27, 2011.
• “Capital and companies from China are sidling into Europe,” Economist, June 30, 2011.
• “Welcome, bienvenue, willkommen: America needs to worry about the contrast between its attitude to China, and Europe’s,” Economist, June 30, 2011
• “Illegal immigration crackdown impacts harvests,” CBS News, July 7, 2011. Hard to balance, and politically challenging: tough new anti-illegal immigrant legislation went into effect in Georgia, and farmers in Georgia are finding one result: there are no workers to harvest on the farms. Fruit is rotting on the vine as a result, at a loss of tens of thousands of dollars per acre. Legal workers should be easy to find, but Americans want no part of picking blackberries: hot, back-breaking work for $12/hour. Georgia says illegal immigrants cost $2 billion yearly in medical and education expenses (maybe, maybe again), but stands to lose $9 billion in crop losses.

5. About 15% of all migrants are under the age of 20. These youthful migrants number about 33 million worldwide. (Remember that children of migrants born abroad are not considered migrants—they are nationals of the country they were born in by virtue of the place of their birth.)  The majority of these youthful migrants—about 20 of the 33 million—have migrated to developing countries. In addition, there are 13.5 million children under the age of 10 among international migrants, most of whom likewise are in developing countries.

• “Thousands of migrant kids trapped inside the world’s border politics,” Colorlines.com
• The children of North Africa are growing up, moving out, and not being replaced, JustinLong.org

6. Most migrants are in a few countries. The top 30 countries host over three-quarters of all migrants worldwide. In over 75 countries, migrants made up more than 10% of the total population. Cross-reference this with “10% can tip opinions.” Although the United States has the most migrants, regionally Europe has the most working-age migrants (a third). Asia is second (with a quarter). North America has about 19% of all working-age migrants. Asia has the largest number of young migrants, and Europe the largest number of older migrants.

7. The older a migrant, the more likely it is he or she will be in a developed country. While half of migrants aged 20 to 24 are in a developed country, over 70% of those aged 65 or older are. If you’re in a developed country, it’s likely the migrants you’re reaching will mostly be older people (and out of the 4/14 Window) or their children.

8. Most migrants are older than the median age of the population they are migrating into. In fact, the average age of migrants differs based on where they are going: migrants to developed countries have a median age of 43, and migrants to developing countries have a median age of 34. Migrants to least-developed countries have a median age of 29.

9. Migrants make up a significant portion of working populations: representing 12.6% of the working age population (compared to just 2% of the working age population in developing countries). They contribute a substantial amount to the GDP of most developed countries. In developed countries, migrants actually increase the worker pool so that there are fewer dependents vs workers. Further, they typically reduce the dependency ratio of the country they are working in: because of them, there are more workers vs. non-workers, which helps ease economic strain within the country.

10. Globally, there are more male migrants than females—however regional realities differ dramatically: This makes sense as in most of the countries migrants are coming from, males have more mobility than females. There are caveats: women are more common among older international migrants, which likewise makes sense because women outlive men by a substantial margin. Among those aged 65 and over, 57% are women. And, because migrants in developed countries tend to be older, we find (not unexpectedly) that women outnumber men among migrants to developed countries (the reverse is true of migrants to developing countries).

11. Many less-developed regions are losing their most skilled workers, which is leading to complications at home. For example, several small developing countries have seen the majority of their health workers depart for jobs elsewhere (explore this trend).

12. Religious affiliation can change as a result of migration, due in part to local conversion but more frequently to marriage.

• Foreigners converting to Islam in Algeria: “marriage with Algerians is the main reason for foreigners’ conversion to Islam.”

13. Migration obviously can and has led to significant political issues, in spite of its largely peaceful nature. Europe is struggling with how to integrate Muslims into their community, with a wide range of responses; and America is struggling with an even broader array of cultural issues ranging from language to religion. These issues can get rapidly politicized and the rhetoric can become quite heated. Incorrect assertions can quickly be blown up into urban legends via distribution on the Internet. The “overheating” of the topic can unfortunately lead to isolated actions of violence on the part of individuals, and some of these individuals will avail themselves of the knowledge and resources to become superempowered for a greater capacity for destruction.

14. In wilder places, migrants can and regularly do fall prey to criminal organizations while they are trying to get to a better life.

• Migrant reports reveal sophistication of drug cartels, BrownsvilleHerald.com.
• Kiwi reporter sees hell in Yemen, New Zealand Herald: a reporter joins smugglers on a boat ride from Djibouti across to Yemen.

15. Most migrants maintain their connections back home. In this globally connected age, cell phones and technology make it easier to remain in touch with relatives who remain behind. Further, remittances from abroad remain a key income flow for many poorer nations.

 

Additional Reading on the Subject of Migration

“Global migration: a world ever more on the move,” New York Times, June 26, 2010.

“Global doors slam shut on immigrants,” JustinLong.org, quoting Christian Science Monitor article. The key paragraph is revealing.

“Korea Can’t Afford Racism in a Global Age,” The Chosun Ilbo: the number of foreigners living in Korea has risen from 900,000 in 2006 to 1.3 million today, accounting for 2.7% of Korea’s population—a 40% increase over the five year period. Wariness and antagonism has likewise grown.

“Migrants flee to new traps,” IPSnews.net: thousands of refugees and migrant workers are stranded on the Libyan-Tunisian border.

 

Deeper Reading and Data

Population Facts, UN Population Division, November 2010, No. 2010/6, PDF.

International migration in a globalizing world: the role of youth, UN Population Division, Technical Paper No. 2011/1, PDF.

Doug Saunders, Arrival City: How the Largest Migration in History is Reshaping our World. Pantheon: 356pp.

Stephen Castles & Mark Miller. The Age of Migration, 4th ed. Hardcopy only, no Kindle edition unfortunately. Not cheap, either: $26.10 used paperback. Reviewed here. Globalization of migration, acceleration of migration, differentiation of migration, feminization of migration, growing politicalization of migration, proliferation of migration transition.

Tagged as: migration