On Civil War in Yemen

May 24, 2011

Events:

6/6. Over the weekend, the wounded Pres. Saleh went to Saudi Arabia for treatment. It was uncertain over the weekend whether he would try to return or not. At present he and his deputies are insisting he will. The two forces to watch within Yemen are Saleh’s sons, relatives and supporters (who are firmly placed in the government) and Major General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, in the opposition. If Saleh does return the results will likely be violent and bloody. Saudi Arabia may right now be bringing pressure to bear to keep Saleh out. But if Saleh does remain out, what will be the future of this tiny nation? It is a sometime ally of the US against terrorism. It is home to a moderately large unreached people group. Pray for the Yemenis.

6/3. Fighting continues to rage. Pres. Saleh was reportedly wounded when the palace was attacked for the first time. The fighting is still primarily tribal, who are well armed. The government will likely use the attack on the palace as an excuse for additional violent reprisals. The US has dispatched a counterterrorism aide to Saudi Arabia & the UAE to discuss options.

6/2. The fighting has intensified and spread across Yemen. The US doesn’t think fighting will end until Saleh steps down.

6/1. Street battles in Yemen erupt. Heavy Fighting Shakes Yemen Capital Overnight (NYT). Scores are dead. More embassies are being closed.

5/31. Fears of a civil war in Yemen as truce collapses. (Foreign Affairs)

5/30. Dozens Die in Yemen Protests as soldiers open fire on crowds of protestors in Taiz (WSJ).

5/26. Fighting worsens, spreads beyond capital, draws in more tribes (NYT). Yemen economy worsens with fuel shortages after violence (SFGate)

At the Start:

Analysis:

 

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