Are disasters on the increase?
1. What is a disaster? We should begin by clarifying the word “disaster”. We use it not just for a particular storm, drought, earthquake, etc., but rather for such an event which dramatically and negatively impacts a population. For example, a magnitude 7.0 earthquake struck off the coast of Argentina on January 1, 2011. In Myanmar, a 5.4 earthquake (much weaker) resulted in 26 deaths, 313 injuries, and 1,000 buildings destroyed. By any measure it was a local disaster. But in the case of Argentina, because it did not negatively impact a population area, it was not considered a disaster. So, in this analysis we will use the term “event” for something like an earthquake, fire, drought, plague, etc., that could be disastrous; and, we will use the term “disaster” for those events which are in fact disasters.
2. The number of earthquake events do not seem to be increasing. Earthquakes of a magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained constant or have declined over the past century. In the past two years, a massive increase in the number of seismic monitoring stations has dramatically increased our ability to detect earthquakes. Right now some 50 are detected on a daily basis; based on the last century’s trends, in any given year we can expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0+) and one great earthquake (magnitude 8+). See the USGS Earthquake Myths page for more. Here’s a list of every mag8+ earthquake over the past century (the majority are along the Pacific coast of Asia).
3. Neither is the number of hurricanes increasing. As seen at the National Hurricane Center, the number of hurricanes (all hurricanes, and major hurricanes) has remained fairly constant per year since 1851.
4. However, it is fairly clear that the number of disasters in aggregate is increasing. The UNEP has a chart comparing all disasters (e.g. everything from fires and insect infestations to droughts and earthquakes) vs. earthquakes. They make two points with this particular chart: (1) what is increasing are what they term climate-related disasters (e.g. earthquakes are staying constant, but floods and cyclones have been increasing); (2) much current urban growth is in at-risk areas: places that could particularly be affected by a disaster (e.g. coastlines: floods & hurricanes, etc).
5. There is also an increasing amount of “risky” buildup in at-risk areas. Slums, for example, are not earthquake proof. Further, as we globalize our industry and build high-tech facilities in the Majority World, those high-tech facilities are sometimes exposed to the risk of natural disaster. Thus the cost of disasters can increase.
6. The effects of some disasters are preventable, but collectively we do too little to minimize the impact of a disaster that, given enough time, is sure to come.
Specific Disaster Events in 2011
7. In 2011 to date, there has been one major earthquake (magnitude 8+, Japan), 8 of a magnitude 7.0-7.9, 102 of a magnitude 6-6.9, 859 of a magnitude 5.0-5.9. In all, there have been some 970 earthquakes to date for 2011. In most years we can expect at least 1 magnitude 8+ quake, and 10 to 20 magnitude 7 quakes.
8. 2010 was a year of numerous famines, notably the Sahel Famine. In 2011:
- A food crisis in North Korea is gaining steam and may result in significant hunger.
- The Famine Early Warning System is predicting significant food instability for the Horn of Africa, which will likely complicate issues in Somalia and Ethiopia.
- A temporary food crisis in Sri Lanka caused by flooding (see below).
9. Worse and less noted: many places facing food insecurity may endure chronic malnutrition rather than constant famine. In fact, they may receive enough calories on a daily basis (at least 2,300 per day per person), yet since they do not get enough vitamins and minerals, they face regular sickness, disease, stunted growth, and impaired learning.
10. Causes of famine can include (among others): conflict, drought (which causes crop failure, as in the Sahel Famine), pests (“Rats causing famine in Myanmar”), and changes in the economy which cause the less-wealthy to be unable to buy food. Food price spikes can contribute to political unrest, as was the case in 2011 uprisings in the Middle East.
11. A La Nina event has resulted in increased rainfall over southern Africa, Asia, and the Pacific, leading to floods:
- January floods in Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city, broke neighborhoods even if they didn’t break record levels. Among other things they helped slash US$4.75 billion from Australia’s national revenues.
- South Africa floods claimed 100 and caused the government to declare 33 disaster zones.
- Sri Lanka floods: the worst in that country’s recent history destroyed homes, schools, and farmland, and could leave 400,000 children without food.
- Southern Thailand endured its worst flooding in decades: more than 100,000 homes were devastated and 2 million impacted.
- Philippines December 2010 floods: displaced 450,000 in 19 provinces, impacted 1.3 million.
- Pakistan floods: 166,000 homeless in Balochistan
- Rio de Janeiro, Argentina: endured flooding and mudslides with US$1 billion in damages.
- Western Kazakhstan: an abrupt rise in river levels in the west has caused massive flooding.
Predicting Disasters
12. New computer models and after-the-fact situation reviews are leading scientists to discover ways in which they can predict disasters (such as the Pakistan monsoonal deluge) nearly two weeks in advance.
Coping with disasters
13. In the first hours and days after a disaster, the immediate focus is on survival. But in the weeks and months afterward, a much bigger issue is coping and recovery. Some people have a harder time than others. Issues include both lifestyle recovery and emotional trauma. The church needs to be helping long after the immediate disaster fades from the news.
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