Organized religion ‘will be driven toward extinction’ in 9 countries, experts predict – CNN Belief Blog – CNN.com Blogs. They make some sociological assumptions but with a cursory glance I doubt they appropriately take into account the factors of competition in the religious market place. Stark has addressed these factors before.
Religious groups slowly moderate themselves toward the majority in order to appeal to larger audiences as they grow bigger–but then they grow so moderate that they cause conservatives to schism out and form new groups that are more conservative (less moderate) in nature. These groups are more attractive to people who seek greater religious demands. This trend is well seen in “The Churching of America” which goes back to the 1770s.
I think theorize the survey that CNN reports is actually flawed. I will have to look up and see what the growth in unaffiliated is vs evangelicals, but generally as a whole for Europe evangelical growth is pacing (growing at the same rate) as the nonreligious.
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