Metrics, misunderstood

Today Ernest (Missions, misunderstood) wrote an interesting piece, “Metrics,” where he questions some of the ways we measure success. Since its a piece dealing with statistics, research and measurement, the subject is near and dear to my heart.

Ernest thinks:

• If you believe that God does the saving (not us), then measuring the number of salvations is kind of silly. Measuring God is silly, indeed. However, God uses us as tools in the evangelization and salvation process. A low number of salvations from a particular population segment can be a potential symptom of a human failing. We have to be wary of always attributing no salvations to this: there have been people who have worked diligently in the Muslim world for decades without seeing a single convert, and this is not necessarily due to their personal failing. On the other hand, if there is no fruit from a ministry, then we should always be willing to reflect and take stock.
• The story of Gideon’s army against the Midianites should prevent us from concerning ourselves with the number of people in the field. Yes and no. It’s true it’s no difference to the Lord to save by many or by few. However, there are a great many places in the world where it’s not a matter of “few” but rather a matter of “none”. Measuring workamong information helps us to identify fields where more workers–any workers–are very much needed.
• By even attempting to measure resources we elevate them to a status they don’t deserve. I don’t agree: measurement doesn’t give status; humans do, and usually due to a context. For example, McDonalds has served “billions and billions” of hamburgers; Google has indexed over a trillion web pages (as of July 2008). Do either of these numbers convey status? They give us a sense of scale, but do they give us a sense of value? We don’t care how many pages are on the Web: what we care about in terms of Google versus other search engines is how well Google delivers the information we are looking for. In the context of mission agencies, we care about how much resources an agency has in the context of two questions: (a) does the agency have enough resources to do the job, and (b) does the agency have more resources than (most) other agencies? The first is a question of sufficiency; the second can be a question of sufficiency or a question of pride. But measuring resources can have another use: highlighting imbalance. Resources are important, and we need to know if they are being properly used. Measuring resources is how we given accounting.

Ernest thinks obedience is the only standard for measuring success, but notes the difficulty in measuring obedience (I don’t know that I’d even try!). He agrees we’re supposed to go into the whole world and preach the gospel, but then asks “How?” How, to me, is not a factor in the measurement of obedience, but Ernest rightly notes three factors that are very important indicators of successful ministry:

• Persecution. We measure this through services like Compass Direct and the Persecution Watch List. Knowing where persecution is growing and where it is declining is an important trend to watch for overall strategy.
• Fruit that lasts. Likewise an important indicator. But how do you measure it? Through numbers of converts, baptisms, long-term disciples, baptizers, defection rates. (Measuring those pesky conversion rates again.)
• Unity. How do you measure unity? By looking at councils, conciliarism, conferences, church schism rates, etc.

However, just because you face persecution, have fruit that lasts, and demonstrate unity does not mean you are obeying what God has given you to do. Jonah’s ministry seems to have been successful by at least two of these three measures, but it’s not clear to me he was fully obedient even in the end. For Ernest, the question remains: how do we know that we’re doing what God wants us to do? For me, statistics and measurements can’t really be used to measure this. Statistics are about measuring how well we are doing what we are doing. But if you want to know if you’re doing the right thing, about the only thing you can do is what James 1 tells us: ask God, without wavering in your willingness to obey.